Canelo vs. Golovkin: Why There is Huge Value Betting The UNDER

Andreas Hale

Thursday, September 14, 2017 5:21 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 14, 2017 5:21 PM UTC

After the sideshow that was Mayweather-McGregor, the real fight is upon us. On September 16th in Las Vegas, Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin will finally square off for what many believe to be boxing supremacy.

Two of the very best fighters in the world, who also happen to be two of the most popular fighters in the world, will put everything on the line in a true 50-50 fight for the masses. 

But is it really a 50-50 fight? That’s exactly what we’re here to discuss as it pertains to the betting value on Canelo-GGG. 

Golovkin is an unbeaten wrecking machine who became a cult hero by decimating his opponents with thunderous power juxtaposed with a boyish smile. After winning a silver medal in the 2004 Olympic games, GGG made his professional debut in 2006 and has amassed a record of 37-0 with 33 knockouts. At one point, he knocked out 23 straight opponents. He’s a mixture of calculation and aggression with a granite chin that has yet to be tested in his professional career. His last win was his toughest test to date against Daniel Jacobs back in March. Golovkin won a hard fought 12-round decision but it left many believe that he was finally vulnerable.

And, perhaps too conveniently, Canelo has finally opted in on the highly anticipated showdown. 

Prior to accepting the fight, Canelo made his presence felt as boxing’s next pay per view star with a mixture of a camera ready appearance and exceptional talent. At the age of 27, Canelo already has 51 professional fights under his belt (49-1-1, 34 knockouts). The only blemish on his record has been forgiven considering it was against arguably the greatest boxer of this generation, Floyd Mayweather. But Canelo has an excellent resume of opponents that includes Miguel Cotto, Austin Trout, Shane Mosley, Erislandy Lara, Amir Khan and Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr.

The betting lines currently have Golovkin as a -150 favorite, which has come down a bit since opening at -180. Meanwhile, Canelo can be found as high as a +140 underdog. While it is a coin flip fight, there are reasons you should be pretty confident rolling with Golovkin. 

Although Canelo’s resume looks great on paper, the fact of the matter is that many of the names that he has beaten have come when they were too small to face Canelo (Khan and Cotto) or over the hill (Mosley). More importantly, Canelo has yet to be hit by a real middleweight. Facing blown up welterweights who are fighting nearly 10 pounds over their normal fighting weight doesn’t offer the same challenge as facing a true 160 pounder with granite in both hands. 

The knockout ration for Canelo is a little bit of smoke and mirrors, despite the Mexican possessing true power. However, Golovkin has faced hard hitters at middleweight including David Lemieux, Curtis Stevens and Daniel Jacobs (who we will get back to later). It’s unlikely that Canelo’s power will be something new for GGG. However, GGG’s devastating power could present problems for Canelo. 

Obviously, Canelo has been the beneficiary of a few scorecards that shouldn’t have gone his way. Nothing necessarily of the highway robbery variety — with the exception of the 114-114 scorecard in the Mayweather fight -but it does appear that Canelo has some cache with judges that could pan out in his favor on Saturday night. But this fight isn’t likely to see the final bell, unless Canelo abandons the Mexican pride and opts to become more of a boxer over the course of 12 rounds.  

Check out all the fight Prop Odds

Taking Golovkin at -150 is the way to go. The real challenge is deciding whether or not this fight will go over 9.5 rounds (-200) or under 9.5 rounds (+185). If there is one fight I would liken this to, it is the 2008 bout between Miguel Cotto and Antonio Margarito. If you recall, Cotto was more of the boxer and Margarito played the role as the stalking opponent. The Puerto Rican got off to a fast start but the hard hitting Margarito just kept plowing forward until the punishment began to take a toll on Cotto. Eventually, the brutality was too much and Cotto was served his first loss in his professional career with an 11th round stoppage.

The similarities in styles is striking. Golovkin is a more polished version of Margarito who effectively cuts off the ring and will likely use his underrated body attack to slow Canelo down after losing the first couple of rounds. What’s important here is Golovkin’s fight with Daniel Jacobs, who was much larger than GGG and has excellent boxing ability along with the type of power that has ended a few nights early. Golovkin may have been hit by Jacobs, but he was never hurt and was in his opponent’s face for 36 minutes. What Jacobs could survive, I don’t think Canelo can. 

Although Canelo is a pretty big fighter who has clearly packed on muscle for this fight. We aren’t sure how his body will react to Golovkin’s punching power over the course of 36 minutes. And if there’s any part of Canelo that decides to go toe to toe with GGG, we could be in for a shorter night than I anticipated. The length of the fight all depends on how much Canelo wants to engage. In the past, he has shown that his conditioning isn’t all that great, which could eventually lead to a major issue if GGG is still coming forward after six rounds. Canelo enjoys fighting off the ropes and that plays right into Golovkin’s wheelhouse. There will be more than a few firefights when both fighters enter their comfort zones, but the power will eventually grind Canelo’s movement to a stop and force him to fight more than he would like to. 

I predicted a Golovkin stoppage in the 10th round, which could be just under or over 9.5 rounds. But given the value of a +200 line, picking this fight to go under is exactly what you should be looking at. There are far too many factors that favor Golovkin in this fight that nobody is really discussing. With those in mind, it would be wise to take GGG and the under.

Either way, it’s going to be a great fight that should produce its fair share of fireworks. But when the smoke clears inside the ring, you’ll want to cash out with GGG by knockout. 

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Again With The Line Variance Displayed Above, We See Why It Is So Important to Line Shop and Have Multiple Accounts

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