Canelo vs. Chavez: Will It Go Distance or End by KO?

Jason Lake

Tuesday, April 18, 2017 6:33 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 18, 2017 6:33 PM UTC

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. has to cut some serious weight for next month’s fight with Canelo Alvarez. That’ll be the most important consideration for your boxing picks.

It seems almost certain that Saul “Canelo” Alvarez will put away Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. next month in Las Vegas. Canelo is available as high as –800 on the boxing odds board as we go to press. Maybe we can sidestep that chalk and find something on the props market; those odds are still pending, but let’s do some homework on the method of victory. Will Canelo knock Chavez out or will they go the distance?

Everything centers on that dramatic weight cut Chavez has to make. They’ll be fighting at a 164.5-pound catchweight on May 6, well below the 168-pound super-middleweight limit that has already given the 6-foot-1 Chavez trouble. He’ll probably be weakened by that weight cut. It could leave Chavez more vulnerable to knockout, or it could force him to keep his distance and try even harder to take this fight to the judges’ scorecards.

Weighing In

Let’s see what the experts have to say. Andre Ward, the light-heavyweight champion, agrees that the weight cut will probably be too much for Chavez to handle. So does Amir Khan, former light-welterweight champ, who predicts Canelo will win by knockout. Middleweight champ Gennady Golovkin was even more precise, telling reporters that Chavez will be out of gas after two rounds, maybe three.

Golovkin even compared this bout to the 2008 mega-fight between Oscar De La Hoya and Manny Pacquiao. De La Hoya had to move down from 154 pounds to 147 as part of their contract; in the end, De La Hoya lost by TKO when he gave up before the start of Round 9. Let’s use that as a template for our boxing picks and see what odds we can get on Canelo winning by KO/TKO. He’s bulked up tremendously for this fight and seems intent on knocking Chavez out to set up another big payday with Golovkin. Who are we to argue?

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