Canelo vs. Chavez Odds: Where Are the Sharps?

Jason Lake

Tuesday, May 2, 2017 8:19 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 2, 2017 8:19 PM UTC

Saturday’s big fight between Canelo Alvarez and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. is just around the corner. Which Mexican do the wiseguys have in their boxing picks? Maybe both.

We’re almost there. Saul “Canelo” Alvarez will take on Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. this Saturday (around 11:00 pm Eastern on PPV) at the shiny new arena in Las Vegas. It doesn’t look too good for Chavez; the betting odds at press time have him as a +475 underdog. But that’s down from +600 at the open, which was way back in January. Maybe this will be a more competitive fight than we thought at first.

A closer look at the betting patterns for this fight suggests otherwise. Chavez may have opened at +600 on many of the online sportsbooks we feature at SBR, but the earliest reports I can find have the underdog starting out at +500, followed by a quick spike of action on Canelo that drove Chavez up to that +600 mark. After some back-and-forth, things leveled out around +500 again, before drifting slowly to +475. And you know what they say: Early money is sharp money.

A Bucket of Prop Wash

We haven’t seen anything yet to suggest any other choice for your boxing picks. Well, there is the matter of how the fight will be decided. We figured it would be worth a look at Canelo winning by KO/TKO, so let’s see what the props market thinks... wow, not much going on at press time. There’s just one prop on the board, from 5Dimes, and it’s for whether Saturday’s fight goes the distance. NO is favored at –160.

Time for some journalism. I’ve looked at some of the sportsbooks across the pond that don’t appear on our odds board, and again, it’s quiet out there. But there is one book offering 3-10 for this fight not to go the distance. That’s –333 in American odds. They’ve also got Canelo at 9-1 to win by KO/TKO/DQ, and 13-8 to win by decision. Holy cannoli. That makes no sense at all.

Opening odds for #CaneloChavezJr. Canelo a huge favorite and rightfully so. 

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) May 2, 2017

This is why you want to shop early, folks. The first props to hit the board can be all over the place sometimes before the bettors come in and give some shape to the market. We’d love to recommend Canelo at 9-1 for the knockout; if you find that available on our list of recommended books before Saturday, go for it. Otherwise, we’ll take that prop at 5Dimesmuchas gracias.

Free Boxing Pick: Fight doesn’t go distance (–160)Best Line Available: at 5Dimes
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