Can Novak Djokovic Regain His Dominance In Madrid?

Joao Mourato

Sunday, May 7, 2017 7:26 PM UTC

Sunday, May. 7, 2017 7:26 PM UTC

Join us on our Mutua Madrid Open tournament analysis that takes place this week. Find out who is the undeniable favorite as well as the players to keep an eye on this event.

ATP Madrid

The Mutua Madrid Open takes place in Madrid with Clay as the chosen surface for this ATP Masters 1000 event.

Before analyzing the lines for this tournament, it’s important to understand how the altitude can affect the game conditions on this event. With an elevation of 2100 feet, Madrid is Europe’s highest capital. Even though Madrid’s elevation can’t compare to Quito or Bogota, the conditions are still quite different when compared to sea level. With lower levels of air density in altitude, the ball travels at a higher speed due to the decrease of drag force. Therefore, it’s expectable to see players with powerful game style doing better on these game conditions when compared to their performances at sea level.


Undeniable Favorite

The three-time champion – Rafael Nadal – is once again the undeniable favorite to lift the trophy in Madrid. Nadal couldn’t ask for a better start to the clay-court season after winning the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters and the Barcelona Open. Despite Rafael’s brilliant record on red dirt, the fast conditions in Madrid are not the best for Nadal’s game style. However, the Spaniard still presents a phenomenal 86.11% winning record on this tournament since the transition to clay back in 2009.

Taking a look now at Nadal’s draw in Madrid, the home favorite won’t have an easy task with very dangerous and unpredictable players on his quarter such as Fabio Fognini and Nick Kyrgios. Adding to this, Novak Djokovic is in the same half as Nadal and the two might face in the semifinals. Due to the tough draw ahead of him and tough game conditions in Madrid, it’s impossible to find any value on Nadal’s outright at +125 at BetVictor.


Former Champion

For the first time since 2009, Novak Djokovic arrives in Madrid without any Grand Slam or Masters 1000 title on his pocket. Due to his poor results in recent months, Djokovic decided to split with his long-term coaching team. Although this may seem a risky decision, it might be what Novak needs to get back to his best form.

As we mentioned before, Djokovic is in the same half as Rafael Nadal with a potential semifinals clash. Despite Nadal’s favoritism, Novak is always a tough match-up for the Spaniard. Adding to this, the Serbian played at a good level in Monte Carlo, losing only to an inspired David Goffin. Therefore, we’ll add Djokovic to our betting picks to win the title at +450 at Bet365 due to the tremendous value on this price.


Player to Keep an Eye

After starting 2017 with an incredible 14 – 1 record, Grigor Dimitrov failed to meet expectations in the following tournaments. Despite his lack of success in recent weeks, Grigor is having a very good year with the Bulgarian currently ranked as the world no.6 on the ATP Race to London. Adding to this, Dimitrov holds great memories from Madrid after reaching the quarterfinals in 2015.

Looking now at Grigor’s draw on this event, the world no.13 starts his campaign against Philipp Kohlschreiber. Despite his undeniable quality, Kohlschreiber’s record on this event is far from brilliant with only one win on his last five appearances. In addition, the German arrives in Madrid after a disappointing defeat against Horacio Zeballos at the BMW Open 2nd round. With this in mind, our suggestion is for you to take advantage of Dimitrov’s betting odds by placing a bet on the Bulgarian to secure a place in the following round at -133 at Pinnacle.

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