Burnley vs. Leicester City Free Premier League Soccer Pick

Lee Phelps

Friday, April 24, 2015 7:16 PM GMT

This game could go a long way to deciding who stays in the Premier League. William Hill's Lee Phelps has been monitoring the stats and odds for his free betting pick.

Sir Alex Ferguson famously called this stage of the season ‘squeaky bum time’ and that describes this game perfectly, with both Burnley and Leicester fighting for their Premier League lives. Burnley are rock bottom on 26 points and the worst goal difference in the division, while Leicester are two points better off, with a better goal difference and a game in hand.

This is quite simply a huge game for both sides, where a draw just isn’t good enough.

 

Burnley
If the two sides do end up with a point each, it is definitely worse for Burnley, given that they are bottom and having played a game more than the Foxes. Unfortunately for the Clarets, they don’t have a very good record against this weekend’s opponents. They are without a win in eight league meetings, drawing three and losing five.

It looks like Sean Dyche’s men have run out goals at just the wrong time, with just one goal in their last 10 hours and 39 minutes of Premier League soccer. Add to that the fact only Aston Villa (9.2%) have a worse chance conversion rate than Burnley (9.4%) this season and it’s looking like a tricky game to make soccer picks.

Danny Ings has now gone eight Premier League appearances without a goal or an assist as well, while in the seven games prior to this he had netted five and assisted two.

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Leicester City
Soccer odds makers know that in contrast to Burnley, Nigel Pearson’s men have found their form again, bookending their season with decent runs may just get them out of trouble. They will have to do something no team has ever done if they are to escape. Leicester were bottom of the table for 140 days before last weekend's win over Swansea; no team has ever been bottom for that long a single Premier League season and not been relegated.

Late goals have been a feature of this latest run with goals in the final five minutes in each of their last four games, with two of these goals being winners.

They are sweating on the fitness of David Nugent. He would no doubt love to play in this one - he has scored in eight of his last 11 league appearances against his former side Burnley.

I see Pearson setting them up to sit back and look to hit the home side on the counter attack. Don’t expect them to fly out of the blocks though, Leicester have been leading at half-time in a league-low four games this season, while Burnley have found themselves losing on a league-high 16 occasions at the break.

 

Soccer Picks
A goal will set this alight and I can see the nerves affecting defences. In my mind it is a perfect game for Leicester, who will look to play on the counter and trust the recent form of Jamie Vardy to attack quickly. Another man to look out for is Leo Ulloa. His goals were the cornerstone of that early season form and after his goal last weekend, he may be about to embark on another mini scoring streak.

Free Soccer Pick: Leonardo Ulloa to score 3.6 (13/5)

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