Bundesliga Soccer Picks for Bayern Munich vs. Werder Bremen

Nikki Adams

Friday, October 17, 2014 6:57 PM GMT

Bayern Munich look to advance their lead at the top of the Bundesliga table at the expense of a hapless Werder Bremen on Saturday. Here’s a preview of this matchup complete with our soccer betting analysis and soccer free picks.

Bayern Munich Flying High
Bundesliga juggernauts Bayern Munich have picked up from whence they left off last season, carrying the rich vein of form that saw them clinch the coveted top-flight crown in record time into the new season. They are sat atop the table with a 5-2-0 record and 17 points, four points clear of Hoffenheim and Borussia M’gladbach (2nd and 3rd in the table, respectively).

Bayern’s successful run through the early rounds features a defensive dominance that amounts to just two goals conceded through seven games. Of course, offensive has been doing its part as well; Bayern are second to none with 15 goals netted in seven games, which yields an average of just above 2 goals per game.

 

Werder Bremen Propping Up The Table
Werder Bremen are off to a horrible start on the Bundesliga season, winless in seven rounds they’re propping up the table with a 0-4-3 mark and 4 points. Indeed, this is the worst start to a season by Bremen since 1976.

One glaring aspect is their shoddy defence, which has conceded 16 goals – the worst tally of the season. They have netted 10 goals since the season began but with defence undoing offense’s efforts, it’s no wonder they can’t seem to buy a win no matter how hard they try.

 

Soccer Betting Verdict
If there were a mismatch in Bundesliga betting, this one takes the cake: it doesn’t get more lopsided than the top team taking on the bottom team. Such contrasting form only serves to heighten the gap in quality, skill and talent. Unavoidably, it also contributes to bullish odds for the heavyweight and, at the same time, bearish odds on the lightweight, making the search for value soccer picks somewhat challenging.

Bayern Munich enter this clash as the prohibitive -1000 favourites to win outright while Werder Bremen are installed at hallucinatory +1600 soccer odds. Even the draw is trading at farflung +1000 soccer odds.

Bayern are riding the momentum of a great start to the season, they are on a run of six straight home wins and they have a solid record over Werder Bremen. Their last home defeat came to Borussia Dortmund in April, after which they bounced back with a 5-2 win at home over (ironically) Werder Bremen. (They also beat them 7-0 in Bremen earlier in the season).

By all accounts, Bayern Munich are an almost lock bet to win this game, but at their hefty soccer odds, Bayern backers have to look at periphery soccer betting markets to find value. (It goes without saying backing Werder Bremen to the win is a pipedream no sharp bettor would entertain seriously.) The rate at which Bayern Munich is scoring together with the porous Werder Bremen defence and past trends between this pair suggests a bet on the Over 2.5 at -350 is a safe option for your soccer picks. Needless to say, the value options are available on higher totals such as the Over 3.5 or 4.5 available at William Hill and trading at -143 and +175, respectively.

Soccer handicap betting markets have set Bayern Munich as the 2.5-point chalk at -130 and Werder Bremen as the 2.5-point underdogs at +110. While the visitors strike an attractive pose against the spread, expecting them to keep this game close against the Bundesliga standard is wildly optimistic. Frankly, if Bayern Munich are in an unforgiving mood this could be a forgettable outing for Werder Bremen. Take Bayern Munich as the 2.5-point chalk.

Free Soccer Picks: Bayern Munich at 2.5 -130; Over 4.5 at +175 at 5Dimes

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