Bundesliga Picks: Take Bayern Munich To Stop Bayer Leverkusen's Win Streak On Saturday

Martin Green

Thursday, February 4, 2016 1:46 PM GMT

Don't think that Bayern Munich will not be focused because Pep Guardiola is leaving. They will be playing against Bayer Leverkusen and we have the best soccer picks.

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Free Soccer Pick: Bayern to win; Under 4.5 goals; Thomas Müller To Score At Any Time
Best Line Offered: at Ladbrokes

 

Pep Guardiola sent shockwaves through the world of football this week by announcing he would be leaving Bayern Munich to join Man City in the summer. The world’s most-coveted coach will finally take on the challenge of leading a Premiership side to glory after enjoying phenomenal success with Barcelona and then with Bayern. But he still has a job to do between now and the summer, when he will be replaced in the Munich hot seat by Carlo Ancelotti.

 

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Bayern Munich Game Overview & Betting Analysis
Do not expect Bayern to suffer from distraction. One big gap on Guardiola’s CV is a Champions League trophy with Bayern. He won the trophy twice at Barca but has failed at the semi-final stage in both his full seasons at Bayern. He will be desperate to end his time in Germany with this trophy, so he will need his players firing on all cylinders between now and the end of the season. They are eight points clear at the top of the table but they cannot afford to ease off as a resurgent Borussia Dortmund nip at their heels. They need to get back to the top of their game following the German winter break with a Champions League against Juventus looming later in the month. The players will also be keen to impress the incoming Ancelotti and are likely to play with the heavy pressing, extreme possession and ruthless efficiency that have defined them over recent seasons.

Bayer Leverkusen are in excellent form, not having lost a game in any competition since early November, but they will find Bayern a tough opponent. Bayern won the reverse fixture 3-0 in August as Thomas Muller scored twice. Bayern are a remarkable 21 points above Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga and the gap in class is apparent.

Despite this, you can actually get a pretty decent price on a Bayern win in this game for your soccer picks. They are priced at -150 with Bet365, Betfred, William Hill, Coral and Stan James, which looks a great price on the outrights. Leverkusen are as long as +450 with Sky Bet, which is an exceptionally high price on a team playing at home that is in such good form. But it is indicative of how good Bayern are and how strongly they dominate the German league. Leverkusen did manage to beat Bayern at home last season, but don’t read too much into that as Bayern had already secured the title by then and had eased off. Before that you have to go back to 2012 for the last time Leverkusen triumphed in this fixture, and it might be worth resisting the temptation of taking the bookmakers up on those long soccer odds on a Leverkusen win. The draw is +320  with BetVictor – another very good price, but also risky as it is often folly to bet on anything but a Bayern win. You can get even better odds if you back Bayern to win and there to be under 4.5 goals in the match. Stan James is offering +100 and at Betfair you can get +105 on this. There have not been more than 2.5 goals when these two teams have met since Bayern won 5-1 back in 2011. You would expect Bayern to win this, but not to thrash Leverkusen, who are still a very good side. There haven’t been more than 4.5 goals in a Bayern Munich game since they beat Arsenal 5-1 in early November. They beat Hoffenheim 2-0 at home last time out, and Leverkusen are a better team than Hoffenheim, so you would expect a narrow Bayern victory rather than a huge one. Both teams are tight at the back and well organised, so it is highly unlikely to be a madcap, high-scoring game of the likes seen in England and Spain.

Also look at Muller to score in this game. You can get +170 with 888 Sport on him to score at any time, which is a great price considering Sky Bet and William Hill are offering just +100. He has scored 14 goals in 19 league games this season and could well repeat his heroics earlier in the season, when he vanquished Leverkusen with that famous brace.