Bundesliga Picks: Bayern Munich vs. Hamburg SV

Nikki Adams

Friday, August 14, 2015 5:21 PM GMT

Friday, Aug. 14, 2015 5:21 PM GMT

Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich ring in the new season on Friday when they take on Hamburg SV. We preview the game and serve up soccer picks.

Bayern Munich To Get Off the Mark With A Win
Bayern Munich open the 2015-2016 Bundesliga season against Hamburg SV, a side that they’ve dominated over the last few seasons comprehensively. The last meeting was a complete and utter evisceration at the Allianz Arena as Bayern ran away 8-0 winners. In the last six meetings, going back to 2013 and spanning several competitions, Bayern won five by outscoring Hamburg SV 23-3. Only a scoreless draw in September last year serves as a positive result for Hamburg SV.

Given this one-sided matchup, is it any wonder that Bayern Munich are trading at -1200 to win outright on the Bundesliga odds board? Or that Hamburg SV are the magnificent +2800 underdogs and the draw a longshot at +1000 soccer odds.

More to the point, is anything but betting on a Bayern Munich win worth considering? The three-time defending Bundesliga champions are masters of their own destiny. They are the standard in German top-flight and few come close to scratching their depth and talent.

Bayern clinched their third straight Bundesliga title, second straight under Pep Guardiola, with a 25-4-5 mark and 79 points, ten points clear of second-placed Wolfsburg. At home they went 14-1-2 and on the road they went 11-3-3 on the season. They scored a whopping 80 goals and conceded just 18, the latter amounts to around 0.529 goals conceded per game.

Hamburg, by contrast, finished 16th in the league, barely escaping relegation with a 9-8-17 mark and 35 points. Where they struggled most conspicuously was on the road as they only went 3-3-11 on their travels. They also struggled to create offense, depositing just 25 goals in 34 games, and defensively they were suspect with 50 goals allowed, which was the seventh most in Bundesliga.

 

Where Are The Value Soccer Picks
Given the wide gap in quality, talent and skill between these two teams it’s unrealistic to suggest anything but a home win. A hefty one at that, one would think as well considering the most recent meetings.

Betting on Bayern Munich at -1200 soccer odds isn’t worth the tickle. The return on investment is paltry, best left for those soccer bettors that have silly money with which to play. The better bets involve periphery markets such as total betting and the like.

Over 2.5 is trading at -265 soccer odds at Bet365, but it’s more tempting to go with the Over 3.5 at William Hill at -110 or better yet Over 4.5 +200 soccer odds. Although that might be pushing it. It’s hard to imagine they would win 8-0 again.

Bayern Munich to win both halves at -333 at Bet365 offers fair value considering, but at William Hill it’s slightly better priced at -300. Given Bayern’s impressive offense and defence and Hamburg’s non-existent offense and defence, it’s hard to imagine they’re going to be competitive even.

Soccer Picks: Over 3.5 at -110

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