Pick Wake Forest +17.5 vs. Duke as NCAA Basketball Odds Point Spread is Inflated

Wednesday, March 4, 2015 4:50 PM UTC

Wednesday, Mar. 4, 2015 4:50 PM UTC

Before placing your NCAA Basketball Pick here, keep in mind Duke is trying to lock down a No. 1 seed for the Big Dance, while Wake Forest, for the moment, remains a work in progress.

<p style="margin-bottom:0in;"><b>Deacons-Devils Betting Odds</b><br /> Most shops we surveyed opened Duke at -18.5 for tonight, with a total of 149. In the early betting the spread was holding steady, while the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/ncaa-basketball/" target="_blank" title="Compare NCAA Basketball odds here">NCAA Basketball odds</a> total moved to 150.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;">Those believing in minor miracles could get Wake Forest at +2150 on the moneyline at Heritage.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;"> </p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;"><b>Deacons-Devils: Duel in Durham</b><br /> Duke has won nine games in a row, after taking care of business against Syracuse Saturday 73-54. The Blue Devils, favored by 12 points, led by nine at the half, grabbed the lead against the spread about halfway through the second half and held on from there.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;">The Dukies shot 48 percent from the floor Saturday, but also hit just nine of 16 free-throws and turned the ball over 17 times. Fortunately for those who bet Duke the Orange kinda stink at the moment.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;">Last Wednesday Duke got very fortunate to beat Virginia Tech in overtime 91-86, and came up far short of the spread at -15. In fact, the Blue Devils have alternated wins and losses ATS for their last 11 games.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;">Big-picture, at 26-3 overall, 13-3 in conference play Duke will extend its string of NCAA tournament appearances to 20 in a row (as people forming <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/ncaa-basketball/shooting-bracketology-perfection-may-ncaa-basketball-odds-ever-your-favor/54641/" target="_blank" title="Shooting for Bracketology Perfection: May the NCAA Basketball Odds be Ever in Your Favor">NCAA Tournament Brackets</a> know), and still has a shot at a No. 1 seed. The Blue Devils have also already secured a double-bye for next week's ACC tournament.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;">Wake Forest, meanwhile, just snapped a three-game losing streak with a 69-66 upset of Pitt Sunday. The Deacons led that game throughout, and for the night shot 47 percent from the field, including 9-of-20 from 3-point range, while committing just six turnovers.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;">That performance was a welcome reversal from last Wednesday's 70-34 loss to Virginia.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;">The Deacons are now 9-6 ATS in ACC play, which indicates to us they might be slightly underrated by the betting market.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;">At 13-16 overall, 5-11 in ACC play Wake Forest is trying to build for the future under first-year head coach Danny Manning.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;text-align:center;"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/ncaa-basketball/ncaa-basketball-picks-top-total-plays-wednesday-night/54792/" target="_blank" title="NCAA Basketball Picks: Top Total Plays for Wednesday Night"><em>Be sure to read our Top Picks Over/Under the NCAA Basketball Odds total</em></a></p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;"><b>By the Numbers</b><br /> Wake is shooting just 42 percent from the field this season, just 34 percent on 3-pointers and 64 percent from the FT line. At the other end of the floor the Deacons are allowing opponents to shoot 44 percent.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;">Duke is shooting 50 percent from the floor, which ranks third-best in the nation, while holding opponents to just under 43 percent shooting.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;"> </p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;"><b>The Recent Rivalry</b><br /> Duke is 9-1 SU over the last 10 games in this series, but Wake Forest is 6-4 ATS during that span. The Blue Devils took the first meeting this season between the teams back in January 73-65, but the Deacons covered that game as 15-point home dogs. In fact, Wake almost caught the Dukies napping, grabbing a two-point lead with five minutes to go, before the Blue Devils ended the game with an 18-8 run.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;">The Deacons shot 46 percent from the floor that night, but hit only two of 13 shots from 3-point land, while Duke shot 8-for-18 from long range.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;">That game played UNDER its total of 145.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;"> </p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;"><b>Betting Trends</b><br /> Wake is trending toward the OVERS this season by a 15-7 margin, as Deacons games have averaged 140 points.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;">Duke is 17-10 on the OVERS, as Blue Devils games have averaged 146 points.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;">Duke is only 7-7 ATS at home this season.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;"> </p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;"><b>Injury Update</b><br /> Duke C Jahlil Okafor (18 points, 10 boards PG) and Quinn Cook (16 PPG) are both dealing with sore ankles, and while they'll play tonight, one wonders if Coach K might pull them once the Dukies put this game in the bag. And that could have an affect on who covers tonight's spread.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;"> </p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;"><b>Deacons-Devils Free Pick</b><br /> We've got a pretty good idea of who's going to win this game, but that's a considerable spread Duke is facing tonight. Also, Wake is 3-3 ATS in ACC road games this season, but easily could be 5-1 against those numbers, just missing covers at Florida State (at +4) and at Notre Dame (at +12). And we think Coach Manning has this program headed in the right direction. So we'll take the dog and the points in this spot.</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;"><b>Free College Basketball Pick:</b> Wake Forest +17.5 at <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=807&amp;book=inarticlepinnacle" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Visit Pinnacle today to place your NCAA Basketball Picks">Pinnacle</a></p> <p><iframe allowtransparency="true" border="0" frameborder="no" height="140px" id="iframe-odds-widget-2036869707517426" name="iframe-odds-widget-2036869707517426" scrolling="no" src="http://js.sbrfeeds.com/index.php/article?iframeid=iframe-odds-widget-2036869707517426&amp;timezone=16&amp;theme=article&amp;line-type=spreadntotals.type=whole-game&amp;odds-type=US&amp;books=19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139&amp;trackers=1409845611531.xml&amp;event-id=362436" style="width:642px;border:medium none;overflow:hidden;"></iframe></p>
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