Boxing Picks: Parker Picking up Steam vs. Joshua

Jason Lake

Thursday, March 29, 2018 11:24 AM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 29, 2018 11:24 AM UTC

Joseph Parker is still a massive underdog for Saturday’s heavyweight title fight with Anthony Joshua, but the boxing odds have been moving in Parker’s direction.

It’s always a bit of a gamble when you put an underdog in your boxing picks. This isn’t a team sport – trainers and seconds notwithstanding – so there’s no place to hide when you step between the ropes. We gave Lucas Browne (+307) a shot anyway last week against Dillian Whyte; Browne got knocked out cold in Round 6 and sent to hospital. Oof.

Will Joseph Parker suffer the same fate this Saturday when he meets Anthony Joshua at Principality Stadium in Cardiff, Wales? We’ve already recommended Joshua (20-0, 20 KOs) at –315 to win by KO/TKO/DQ, but one week later, the boxing odds are moving towards the underdog. That prop is now available at –300, and Parker (24-0, 18 KOs) has improved from +600 to +460 on the moneyline.

14 Cents Goes a Long Way

There’s definitely something going on in the betting market. Reports from Vegas have most bettors choosing Parker, but most of the money is on Joshua – usually an indicator that the sharps are on the favorite. This dynamic is playing out to varying degrees at the online sportsbooks. At press time, there’s even a smidge of arbitrage available for Saturday’s fight; Bovada, 5Dimes and others have Parker priced at +550, while Joshua is –545 at WagerWeb.

As a public service, let’s run these numbers through the holy SBR Arbitrage Calculator and see what comes out the other side. Plug 1, Plug 2, Calculate ... says here that a $100 bet on Joshua and a $18.21 bet on Parker will produce a profit of 14 cents, provided there’s a winner. That’s great if you’re in Vegas looking for comped drink tickets. Online, not so much.

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BREAKING NEWS: Deontay Wilder WON’T be coming to Cardiff this weekend to work with @SkySports for #JoshuaParker. He’s been told he WON’T be allowed to enter the ring after the fight to promote a #JoshuaWilder fight as Eddie Hearn & AJ want to make the Dillian Whyte rematch NEXT!

— Boxing Kingdom (@BoxingKingdomI4) March 28, 2018

We’re sticking with the KO/TKO/DQ bet here at the ranch. Joshua has that Lennox Lewis feel, a great but underappreciated fighter who doesn’t make waves by threatening to eat your children. The boxing world is already preparing for the Next Big Fight between Joshua and Deontay Wilder the WBC heavyweight champ; Joshua is a –250 favorite for that bout, as well – except Whyte may end up in that slot instead of Wilder. Follow the money, my friends, and may the squared circle be with you.

Free Boxing Pick: Joshua wins by TKO/KO/DQ (–300)Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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