Boxing Picks: Mayweather vs. Guerrero Fight Analyis

SBR Staff

Wednesday, April 10, 2013 7:59 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 10, 2013 7:59 PM UTC

On May 4th, Floyd Mayweather will be stepping into the ring again and putting his undefeated record on the line against Robert Guerrero. Is there any value to be found with the current odds?

Floyd Mayweather vs Robert Guerrero

The last time we saw Floyd Mayweather in the ring, for an official fight, he fought Miguel Cotto. And Miguel Cotto put on a game effort. He tagged Mayweather quite a bit, left him a little bit bloodied and a little bit bruised. Which sort of goes to show just how impressive Mayweather has been in his career. We saw him lose a few rounds, get hit a few times. But after this fight, Miguel Cotto got a boost in popularity and how he is perceived in the boxing community. Questions started surrounding if Mayweather is slowing down, if he should retire...yet, he beat Cotto pretty clearly, in the 116-112, 117-111 range. 

Again, that speaks volumes of Mayweather's career. Enough about that though, let's talk about this fight, Mayweather-Guerrero. 

Everybody knows about Floyd Mayweather, who he is, his sort of style, and who he has beaten. Mayweather is a highly skilled boxer, very defensive, he's beaten the likes of Zab Judah, Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton, Shane Mosley, Victor Ortiz and recently, Miguel Cotto. The list goes on and on but, not many know about Robert Guerrero, he isn't in the mainstream. So, let's talk about him for a second and break him down as a fighter, his resume, and his style.

First, Robert Guerrero is a very courageous fighter in and out of the ring. It hasn't been easy for Guerrero. There have been inactive spots during Guerrero's career, mainly because of setbacks regarding injuries, things not falling into place, and his wife, Casey, being ill with cancer for the past few years. Luckily, the tide seems to have turned for the Guerrero's as Casey has been cancer free for the past six months now and all the set back Robert Guerrero has had have been in the rear view mirror for the time being.

Robert Guerrero has had to deal with a lot of adversity, but he's been able to get past it. Somewhat early in his career, back in 2005, on a ShoBox telecast as a showcase event for Guerrero, he fought journeyman veteran Gamaliel Diaz, and Guerrero wasn't all there. He lost via SD. Six months later though, he rebounded and avenged that defeat. The biggest test would come later that year in Orlando Salido. Salido beat up Robert Guerrero and win via Unanimous Decision with his aggressive, awkward style. But after the fight, Salido tested positive and the result overturned to a No Contest. 

Fast forward to 2009 when Robert Guerrero would get the biggest breaks in his career. He knocked out long time veteran Edel Ruiz in one round. Two months later, on a showcase card on HBO B.A.D (Boxing After Dark), he would fight an undefeated, highly skilled fighter in Daud Cino Yordan. Unfortunately, an accidental headbutt in the second round caused the fight to be stopped and result in a No Decision. Guerrero got a lot of flak for that fight, and so 3 months later, on ESPN 2's Friday Night Fights, he cut and thoroughly beat Efren Hinojosa by 8th round stoppage. Two months later, he'd win a world title belt at 130 (Super Featherweight) by beating Malcolm Klassen.

For the past three years he's moved up in weight and fought some quality opposition. Beating the likes of Joel Casamayor (this wasn't a good fight, Casamayor is shot and quite past it), Vicente Escobedo, and his most dominate showing in beating up Michael Katsidis. 

After the Katsidis fight, he was red hot; that was his peak fight. Unfortunately, his career hit the skids as he took about 15 months off. Casey's cancer popped up again, and Robert Guerrero tore his rotator cuff as he was getting ready for a super clash with Marcos Maidana. 

15 months later, on July 28th, 2012, he was back. Casey was and still is, cancer free. Robert Guerrero was also healthy, and he moved up in weight again to 147 (Welterweight). In his first fight at Welterweight, he looked slow, sluggish, but he got the job done in beating Selcuk Aydin by Unanimous Decision. Four months later, his most recent fight to date, he fought Andre Berto and that was a fun war. It was a slugfest in which Guerrero dropped Berto twice in the first two rounds, but Berto, who couldn't see out of both eyes, was able to rally back a bit and make it a close fight. Guerrero did win, clearly, though, and that brings us to today. Guerrero has been able to parlay that fight into a megafight with Floyd Mayweather, and now it's time to analyze how Mayweather and Guerrero will match up.

Robert Guerrero is a top quality fighter, he does everything well. He has good power, he has good speed, he has good boxing ability, everything he does, he does well. Guerrero is an all-around good boxer. Mayweather, though, is world class. Mayweather still has great reflexes, great defense, good hand speed, and his power has filled in pretty nicely now. He doesn't have quite the leg movement he once had. He is now more of a stationary target, but his defense still hasn't regressed. His shoulder roll defense (and when moving forward he brings up the high guard) is still top notch, and it's tough to get punches to his head or body. Guerrero is going to have a tough time getting clean shots in there. 

What this fight reminds me of is when Floyd Mayweather fought Oscar De La Hoya. Mayweather was on the ropes, for pretty much the entire fight.

Mayweather was able to land sneaky counters while De La Hoya threw and threw punches in bunches. De La Hoya didn't land much of anything, but he threw a lot, which was the key for him making it as close of a fight as he did. That was the style Robert Guerrero brought against Andre Berto, and I think that's what he's going to try and do to Mayweather. Bully Mayweather to the ropes, fire punches in bunches, and try and win that way.

Overall, I think Guerrero will have success doing that, but Guerrero will leave himself open to Mayweather's counters and those shots and will score and score to eventually win on the cards. 

When analyzing this fight to find the best odds for our sports picks, Mayweather winning straight up, there isn't much value at all. The best odds you can find right now for that, is Mayweather at 1/8. That's not much value at all. There is value on Robert Guerrero, who is sitting at 7/1, but I personally, I wouldn't go for it, or at least put a lot of money on that. May'be a couple of bucks here and there, you never know. And again, that might happen. Guerrero might be able to throw and throw, and the judges might like that. 

For the latest Mayweater vs Guerrero Odds head to Sportsbook Review.

Personally, the best bet I see, with the most value, is Mayweather winning by decision at 2/5. Guerrero is a tough, tough kid. He'll take a lot of shots, and Mayweather may very well end up getting a late stoppage, a corner stoppage or the ref stops the fight, but there isn't too much value in that, which is sitting at 3/5 right now. Mayweather winning by decision is the best bet I see and the best value bet, as well. 

Free Boxing Pick: Mayweather by decision at Bet 365

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