Boxing Picks: Mayweather vs. Alvarez Betting Odds & Analysis

Danny Norris

Thursday, June 6, 2013 2:50 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 6, 2013 2:50 PM UTC

Take an early look at the opening odds from the sportbooks for the boxing matchup between Floyd Mayweather and Canelo Alvarez. Do bettors have any early value worth grabbing?

Floyd 'Money' Mayweather is keeping his promise, as he has a 30 month, six fight contract with Showtime, and he promised everybody he would be fighting this coming September. On September 14th, Floyd Mayweather will take on Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez in a fight that is much more interesting than Mayweather's fight in May versus Robert 'The Ghost' Guerrero. I guess it shouldn't be too much of a surprise given the only damage Mayweather sustained was some swelling to his right hand after all the straight rights that were bouncing off Guerrero's head. Mayweather-Guerrero served as a disappointing appetizer, but Mayweather-Alvarez looks to be a very fulfilling main event.

For the latest Mayweather vs Alvarez Odds head to Sportsbook Review.

For the first time since 2007 Floyd Mayweather will be fighting twice in one year. And for the first time since 2007, there is a realistic chance that Mayweather may lose. Canelo Alvarez is a well rounded fighter. Canelo Alvarez has really good speed for a big man, very heavy hands, throws very fluid combinations, and most importantly, he has a pretty high boxing I.Q. Canelo fights like a crafty veteran. Canelo can fight in a few different ways and adjust during the fight. Canelo can fight aggressively, get in close and throw some wicked body shots. Or he can fight in a boxer-puncher/counter-puncher type role as he did in his last fight versus Austin 'No Doubt' Trout.

That's what makes this fight so interesting is that Canelo doesn't fight in one particular way and Canelo's slills has gotten better and better after every fight. He seems to be continuing to add new wrinkles to his game after every fight. Now, skills wise, Canelo is improving but his stamina hasn't. Canelo has had stamina problems throughout his career, but it was well hidden as he was moving up through the ranks. In his last fight, as mentioned above against 'No Doubt' Trout, that was Canelo's toughest fight to date and his stamina was exposed against a world class fighter like Trout. Now that Canelo is fighting world class, P4P opponents he's going to need be able to fight for more than 30 second spurts. Canelo needs to be able to fight for three minutes a round on a consistent basis against Mayweather.

Stamina is very important in a fight like this because Canelo will need to put the pressure - smart pressure - on Mayweather. If Canelo can do that for three minutes of every round, he may have enough to pull off the upset. Why is stamina so important? The obvious reason would be that Canelo will have a huge size advantage over Mayweather. Canelo may very well be 20-25 pounds heavier than Mayweather in the ring. To put that in perspective that's the difference between the Light Heavyweight division and the Heavyweight division. 20-25 pounds is the difference between Lightweight and Middleweight. It's a huge advantage. Not only that, but Canelo isn't some lumbering, slow, unathletic fighter. As we talked about above, Canelo is a really good, well rounded fighter.

So, Mayweather will have his hands full in this fight as it stands. But if Canelo can keep steady consistent pressure for 3 minutes a round, this will be a really tough fight for Mayweather. What Mayweather needs to do is move like he did against Guerrero. He needs to move laterally and keep at control of distance. How does he control distance? He'll need to lead with a jab to the body to keep distance. If Canelo will have his usual stamina problems jabs and straight rights to the body won't help at all. When he sees counter opportunities or if Canelo starts slowing down pop him with that sharp straight right, lead left hook, and bounce out. 

Overall, I see this as a very interesting and a very tense bout. The MGM Grand in Las Vegas will be electric and it'll be a fun atmosphere. Betting odds aren't available so depending on the odds this will change, but right now, I think the draw option might be a really good play. The draw option is usually around 25/1 so if this fight has the draw option at 25/1 or higher I think that's a really good option for your sports picks. I believe there's a very good chance that this fight will be close and Mayweather might not be able to clearly win rounds. If that's the case, given that Canelo Alvarez is Golden Boy Promotions' golden child I think he may get the benefit of the doubt in close rounds and the judges may see the fight as a draw. 

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