Boxing Picks: Arreola To Make Most Of Opportunity Against Wilder

Jake Walker

Tuesday, July 5, 2016 8:10 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 5, 2016 8:10 PM UTC

WBC Heavyweight Champion Deontay Wilder (36-0, 35 KOs) will defend his title against longtime contender Chris Arreola (36-4-1, 31 KOs) on July 16. What's the right boxing pick for this exciting fight?

The bout will take place in Wilder's hometown of Birmingham, Alabama and it is a voluntary defense for him, following what happened to his mandatory defense with Alexander Povetkin, who tested positive for a banned substance. 

This promises to be an amazing fight. There are people with doubts about Arreola's talent and the boxing odds from most online sportsbooks reflect this, but this bout will give Arreola a chance to prove many doubters wrong.

Wilder's powerful right hand is an impressive weapon because once he lands it, few are immune to it. His power allows him to mask his deficiencies in the ring. There have been uneven performances from Wilder, but his right hand has saved him. Being able to end the fight at any time is an amazing advantage.

The 30-year-old Wilder started boxing very late but still won a bronze medal and in 2015 he won a unanimous decision against Bermane Stiverne to take the belt. Then, he had title defenses against Eric Molina, Johann Dahaupas and Artur Szpilka and he was able showcase his skills and retain his belt. Still, Molina, Dahaupas and Szpilka are not stars and many thought that Povetkin could have beaten him. 

How can Arreola beat Wilder? The 35-year-old from California is a perennial contender who has never been able to get over the hump, which means that he is hungry. However, that also tells us that his power might have decreased over time. Arreola lost twice to Bermane Stiverne, the second loss by KO (as mentioned above, Wilder beat Stiverne). Arreola then won a close decision over Curtis Fighter before fighting to a draw with Fred Kassi. He won a decision against Travis Kauffman in his last fight in December but the result was overturned following a positive test for marijuana.

Wilder obviously wanted a low-risk fight against a heavyweight with a decent resume to stay busy after the Povetkin fight was cancelled, and Arreola has to do something drastic to have a chance against him.

Betting Analysis 
That being said, Wilder's style has holes and capable fighters have a chance against him. Will Arreola look at this fight as a one-time chance to make up for all the letdowns in his career and prepare for it properly or will he just worry about getting a paycheck?

Wilder is at around -2600 and -3600 at most sportsbooks, so betting on him makes no sense. Arreola at as high as +1817 is extremely intriguing. There's value on Arreola, so he's my boxing pick for this fight.

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Boxing Pick: Chris Arreola +1817
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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