Boxing Odds & Predictions: Will Pacquiao-Mayweather See a Knockdown?

Jason Lake

Tuesday, March 10, 2015 2:02 PM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 10, 2015 2:02 PM UTC

Floyd Mayweather & Manny Pacquiao are –300 to go the distance when they meet on May 2. But those boxing odds don’t tell us whether or not there’ll be a knockdown. And how many punches will they land?

When we gave out our now-famous list of potential boxing odds for the big May 2 fight between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao, we may have reached a little bit when we made NO a –240 favorite on whether or not there would be a knockdown. This was in a fight where Bovada had it pegged at –285 to go the distance. But maybe it wasn’t a reach after all. Bovada has since moved to –300 as we go to press, leaving more room for the possibility of a non-decisive knockdown.

Otherwise, there still aren’t very many boxing props available yet for the Fight of the Century. But there will be. We definitely expect to see boxing odds published for the knockdown prop; a few overseas books have already ventured into that territory. We also think there will be totals for how many shots each fighter will land. But how many? Let’s pull up some stats and see if we can set a decent number, while we consider whether or not someone’s going to taste the canvas at the MGM Grand.


I Get Knocked Down, But I Get up Again
Knockdowns aren’t always the be-all and end-all of a fight. Mayweather has only suffered one official knockdown in his 47 fights, way back in 2001 against Carlos Hernandez, and that was from out of thin air. Mayweather had just broken his own left hand punching Hernandez in the forehead, and briefly went to take a knee – although it’s hard to tell from the footage if he actually touched the canvas at all.

Not counting slips, Mayweather’s defensive style and his boxing skills have kept him on his feet ever since. But at age 38, he could be in for the fight of his life against Pacquiao, who is coming off a bout against Chris Algieri where he knocked him down six times in total while having to settle for a decision. Again, though, two of those knockdowns were dubious to say the least; all those logos they put in the ring for advertising get slippery when wet, and there was some water spilled in one of the corners where Algieri’s feet went out from under him. Too bad. They still count as knockdowns in the record books, as well as the sportsbooks.

Of course, Mayweather isn’t likely to get peppered the way Algieri did, and Mayweather isn’t a knockdown artist himself – the last person he put on the canvas was Victor Ortiz in 2011, and that was after something of a cheap shot. But if there ends up not being much difference between the Combat Sports odds for the fight going the distance and NO for the knockdown Boxing Pick, we’ll have to think long and hard about betting YES.


You’re with Me, Leather
As for the totals for the number of punches each fighter will land, we can make a very rough approximation by assuming the fight will go the full 12 rounds, then simply taking the average number of punches each fighter landed in his last five decisions. To the scorecards:

Mayweather: (166+230+232+195+179)/5 = 200.5
Pacquiao: (229+198+281+253+176)/5 = 227.5

We’ve rounded those totals to the nearest 0.5 punches, by the way. Naturally, given the quality of these two fighters, you can’t expect them to land as often as they did against their most recent opponents. And sportsbooks would be well advised to shave at least a few punches off these totals to account for the possibility of a stoppage. But at the same time, let’s not forget that Mayweather is 38 years old now, and he had some trouble against Marcos Rene Maidana, who landed 221 punches in their first fight, then 128 in the rematch as both fighters put in much less volume. Expect something closer to that higher total for Pacquiao this time around.

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