Boxing Odds: Bradley vs. Pacquiao To Go Over 10.5 Rounds

Jason Lake

Tuesday, March 29, 2016 6:43 PM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 29, 2016 6:43 PM UTC

Judging by history and the boxing odds, it appears Manny Pacquiao and Timothy Bradley, Jr. are fated to go the distance when they meet April 9 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.

Things were a bit different the last time we were talking about Manny Pacquiao. He was going into an incredibly lucrative welterweight title fight against Floyd Mayweather, Jr., the so-called “Fight of the Century” that ended up doing far more for Pacquiao's wallet than his reputation. Pac-Man hurt his shoulder before the fight, didn't tell anyone, and ended up losing a relatively one-sided unanimous decision.

Nearly one year later, Pacquiao has himself another title fight coming up at the MGM Grand, but it's for the vacant WBO International welterweight strap, and it's against Timothy Bradley, Jr. It's also expected to be Pacquiao's last dance as a professional. This will be the rubber match for the two fighters; Bradley “won” a split decision in 2012, then Pacquiao got his revenge with a fair unanimous decision two years later. Hmmm... what are the chances they go the distance one more time?

Senses Working Overtime
Believe it or not, less than 100 percent. The props for Bradley-Pacquiao III have hit the boxing odds board, and the total for this 12-round bout has been set at 10.5 rounds. Incredible, right? Having said that, the OVER is pegged at around –350 depending on where you shop. But that still seems like a reasonable amount of chalk to put on your plate.

Seems like. boxing picks aren't as easily quantifiable as some sports; still, we've got plenty of data to work with when it comes to each fighter's history, and neither résumé contains many knockouts. Pacquiao (57-6-2, 38 KOs) hasn't stopped anyone inside the distance since 2009 versus Miguel Cotto, and he's suffered just one knockout in 10 fights since, losing to Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012. Bradley (33-1-1, 1 NC, 13 KOs) only has two knockouts since leaving the youth ranks in 2008, although he did stop Brandon Rios by ninth-round TKO when they met in November.

The Preacher, The Teacher
Maybe this will become the new normal for Bradley. This was his first fight under new coach Teddy Atlas; Bradley had been with Joel Diaz throughout his career, until firing him last year after winning the interim WBO World title from Jessie Vargas. Bradley has taken to Atlas like a duck to water, enough so that Bob Arum is promoting this fight based on the idea that Bradley can be competitive in the rubber match, instead of (explicitly) billing this as Pacquiao's swansong.

Not everyone is convinced. Pacquiao is a –250 favorite to win this match outright, and he will presumably want to go out on a high note if he's indeed hanging up the gloves to focus 100 percent on the political arena. We'll be taking a closer look at this matchup throughout the week, but for now, the OVER still seems like the safest choice available on the props market.

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Free Boxing Pick: OVER 10.5 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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