Alvarez vs. Golovkin Boxing Odds and Picks: Rivals Settle Score With Trilogy

Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin will add another chapter to their rivalry when they meet for the third time in Las Vegas on Saturday. Have a look at our Alvarez-Golovkin picks before this marquee event.

After squaring off at middleweight in their first two meetings back in 2017-2018, Alvarez and Golovkin will trade zingers one weight class up come Saturday night, with the former moving down and the latter moving up to 168 pounds. The pair fought to a split draw in their first dance, with Alvarez claiming a majority decision in their equally competitive, albeit less dramatic immediate rematch.

The 32-year-old Alvarez has since cleaned house at super middleweight and now puts his status as undisputed champ on the line after a failed bid to claim Dmitry Bivol’s WBA light heavyweight crown this past May. Golovkin, on the other hand, has rebounded from his 2018 loss to Alvarez with four straight wins while capturing three middleweight straps. “GGG” was last seen stopping Ryota Murata by ninth-round TKO in Japan this past April.

Here are my Alvarez-Golovkin picks and predictions for this super middleweight bout (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Alvarez vs. Golovkin Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Sept. 17, 8 p.m. ET (main event walkouts: approx. 11 p.m.)
TV: PPV, DAZN
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Alvarez vs. Golovkin Odds Analysis

Given his edge in recent activity, age, and his win over Golovkin in their rematch, it’s no surprise Alvarez heads to Vegas a huge favorite. DraftKings and FanDuel are offering the super middleweight kingpin at a whopping -550, while Caesars and PointsBet have him at -500.

The pair went the distance in their first two matchups, so if you’re siding with the favorite the third time around, you’ll find an Alvarez win on points at +105 with Caesars. As for Golovkin, the middleweight titleholder is available at +410 with FanDuel. The 40-year-old has secured 37 of his 42 wins within the distance, so if you’re hoping he’ll earn some sweet revenge via his usual method of victory, a low-risk bet on a Golovkin KO/TKO may pique your interest at +950 with FanDuel.

Alvarez vs. Golovkin Picks

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

Who Will Win Alvarez vs. Golovkin?

Alvarez (-500) ★★★★

The more time passes and the mileage on Golovkin accrues, the more the gap between him and Alvarez widens. Good as he’s looked opposite mid-tier competition since his loss to Alvarez, Golovkin has slowed a step, while Alvarez remains a quick and clean technician at age 32.

With eight less pounds to cut at super middleweight, “GGG” may very well show flashes of his former self in Vegas, but at 40 years of age, I doubt he’ll produce enough of them to best Alvarez. Whether the pair choose to duel against the ropes or in space, I see the younger, faster Alvarez timing his counters before long and punishing Golovkin’s midsection throughout Saturday’s clash to leave “GGG” winless in the trilogy.

Alvarez vs. Golovkin Over/Under

Over 10.5 rounds (-190) ★★★

Neither man is known to be reckless or fight with his ego, and despite the acrimony between them, I doubt their third dance will prove an exception.

He may be a little long in the tooth, but Golovkin has proven he can still put many a man’s lights out, while Alvarez is a cerebral duelist who isn’t in the habit of trying to force a finish. Even if Canelo’s speed, lauded bodywork, and counters are enough to overwhelm the aging Golovkin within the distance, I still expect each man to show the other enough respect to take this matchup into its later rounds.

Alvarez vs. Golovkin Winning Method

Alvarez by decision (+105) ★★★

These two went the distance in each of their first two meetings, and even with Father Time tugging at Golovkin’s trunks, I doubt the third will end much differently. The veteran of 44 pro bouts has indeed lost a step, but his in-ring savvy, granite mitts, and iron chin are all worthy of Alvarez’s respect, and I expect the younger fighter to perform accordingly.

Golovkin may rely more on his piston of a jab than usual - as he did in the rematch - to slow Alvarez down and keep him honest, but as the pair enter the later rounds and Golovkin begins to betray his age, look for Alvarez to open up and mercilessly attack his rival’s midsection to pull away on the scorecards and earn a lopsided verdict.

Where to Bet on Alvarez vs. Golovkin Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Alvarez-Golovkin picks made 9/16/2022 at 12:49 a.m. ET