Blue Bombers Trending Up & Won't Come Down vs. Tiger-Cats

David Schwab

Tuesday, August 7, 2018 4:01 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 7, 2018 4:01 PM UTC

For the second straight week, the favorites went 3-1 straight-up, while Week 8 in the CFL ended with a 2-2 split against the spread. Let's check out some of this week's key matchups and cash those tickets.

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CFL Betting Pick of the Week:Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-5)Friday, 8:30 p.m. ETFree CFL Pick: Blue Bombers -5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Hamilton snapped a three-game skid both SU and ATS with last week’s 50-11 romp over Montreal. It closed as a favorite in all three of those losses as part of an overall record of 3-4 SU and ATS. One of those victories came against Winnipeg in Week 3 as a 4.5-point home favorite in the 31-17 win. The total stayed "inder" the closing 59-point line in that game and it has been set at 56.5 points for Friday night’s game at Investors Group Field.

The Tiger-Cats rolled up 521 yards of total offense against Montreal last week, including 352 yards through the air. This was the first time the offense scored more than 20 points in its last four games. Jeremiah Masoli has already thrown for 2,214 yards on 160 completions, which is the second-highest total in the CFL. My concern is the seven touchdown throws against eight interceptions.

The Blue Bombers went into last week’s bye at 4-3 SU with a 5-2 record ATS. The total went "over" 53.5 points in a 40-14 rout of Toronto in Week 7 as 10-point favorites at home. They have now covered in four of the five games played closing as favorites. The total has gone "over" in five of Winnipeg’s first seven games behind an offense that is averaging 34.1 points per game as the league's highest-scoring team.

Winnipeg quarterback Matt Nichols missed some playing time at the beginning of the season due to a knee injury and he continues to return to form with each game he plays. He has put the ball up 111 times with 70 completions for 873 passing yards in four games. Nichols has five touchdown throws verse four interceptions. More important is the balance on offense with Andrew Harris leading the league in rushing. Through seven starts, he has gained 638 yards with five scores on 105 carries.

Head-to-Head Betting Trends

The Tiger-Cats have a 5-1 edge both SU and ATS in their last six road games against Winnipeg, and the total has gone "over" in each of the last five meetings overall.

Free CFL Pick

Past trends are working against me, and Hamilton has already struck first blood (SU and ATS) in the season series, but I still like Winnipeg’s chances to win and cover the five points. The Blue Bombers are well rested and trending up at 3-1 (SU and ATS) in their last four games.

Other Week 9 GamesEdmonton Eskimos (-3.5) at British Columbia Lions

When: Thursday, 10 p.m. Total Line: 54
Analysis: Edmonton has the second-best SU record in the CFL at 5-2, but it falls to 3-4 ATS. The Lions are last in the West Division at 2-4 SU with a 4-2 record ATS. BC was the first team this season to avoid a double-digit loss to Calgary in last week’s 27-18 setback as a 12.5-point road underdog. In this spot in another division matchup, I like its chances to keep this a three-point game either way.

Montreal Alouettes at Ottawa RedBlacks (-14)

When: Saturday, 8 p.m. Total Line: 49.5
Analysis: Montreal finds itself in some dire straights with a 1-6 SU start. It has the lowest-scoring offense in the league and it is doubtful that Johnny Manziel can turns things around on his own. Ottawa wins this game with relative ease, by my top bet would be the "under" on the total line.

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Would T.O be a better CFL player than Manziel right now?

— Golic and Wingo (@GolicAndWingo) August 6, 2018

Week 8 Recap

Going back to last week’s top CFL pick, I was very confident Hamilton would cover a seven-point spread against Montreal. However, my top bet was the "under" on the closing 50-point line. The Tiger-Cats brought that wager to a sudden end on their own with a 50-11 victory.

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