Bisping vs. Rockhold: Arbitrage Available At UFC 199

Jason Lake

Wednesday, May 25, 2016 5:27 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 25, 2016 5:27 PM UTC

Michael Bisping has stepped in as Luke Rockhold's challenger for UFC 199 in two weeks. The MMA odds have been thrown into confusion for their Middleweight title fight.

Well, here we go again. Chris Weidman will not get his rematch for the Middleweight title at UFC 199 this June 4 at the Forum in Inglewood. Weidman pulled out last week with a neck injury, so it'll be Michael Bisping taking on Luke Rockhold in the main event. Oh, and B.J. Penn was just taken off the card for a possible doping violation. Delightful.

Not a problem for us betting types. Volatility creates profit opportunities, and with Bisping priced as high as +700 on the UFC odds board at press time, there might be a chance here to grab some value on the underdog. Or not. Let's take a closer look at this matchup and see what's what.


Between the Lines
This isn't the first time Bisping (28-7 lifetime, 17-7 UFC) and Rockhold (15-2 lifetime, 5-1 UFC) have met in the Octagon. They met in the main event of UFC Fight Night 55 back in 2014; Bisping got in a few nice shots in the first round, but Rockhold had the advantage, and he secured a one-armed guillotine early in the second for the win. Pretty decisive, really. Rockhold was the fashionable UFC pick in that match, moving from –330 at the open to –550 at the close.

Interestingly enough, the lines are moving in the opposite direction for the rematch – depending on where you shop, that is. Sports Interaction opened Rockhold at –745, but he's down to –660 at press time. Sportbet, on the other hand, has moved the champion from –900 to –1100. Volatility, my friends. With a difference in odds like that, perhaps we can get in some tasty arbitrage by betting both sides. I suspect we can.


Button Mashing
How do we find out? By using the SBR Scalp Value Calculator, of course. Oooh, this will be fun. Try this along with me at home. We plug in –660 for Rockhold as the first betting line, then +700 for Bisping as the second line; hit the Calculate button, and presto, instant profit. If you bet $100 on Rockhold at SIA, and $14.39 on Bisping at Sportbet, you'll end up making 76 cents profit. If they don't fight to a draw, that is. Free money~!

Okay, 76 cents isn't much, but maybe you're rolled high enough to bet 10 times as much. Or 100 times. Then again, when holes like this appear in the marketplace, they don't always stay open for very long. This is why it pays to shop early, and to do the math. If you're looking for a non-arbitrage pick, we'd probably stick with Rockhold, given the way he took care of Bisping the first time around. But we'll take both sides at these prices, thank you kindly.

Free UFC Pick: Bisping +700 & Rockhold –660
Best Line Offered: at SportsInteraction
Record: 5-0 ML, 1-1 Totals (+6.50 units)

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