Betting UFC 190: Undercard Preview, Predictions & Picks

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, July 29, 2015 5:44 PM GMT

UFC 190 features a highly anticipated grudge match between Rousey & Correia for the women’s bantamweight strap but there are other less heralded matches that could give us substantial betting value.

Glaico Franca (13-3) vs. Fernando Bruno (16-2)
A pair of Brazilian lightweights will throw down as their tour of duty in The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil comes to a close. This matchup looks to favor the older and cage wiser Fernando Bruno. Though Franca has the heavier hands we don’t believe Bruno will allow him to get close using a tactical ground strategy that should nullify any power punches levied by the much younger and taller Franca.

The betting public is clearly steaming Franca based on his physical advantages but Bruno has a low, center of gravity that he will use to control the fight from the mat. The UFC odds on Franca opened at -145 but it has spiked to as high as -180 at Youwager. My advice is to take advantage of a live dog and bet Bruno +158 at Pinnacle.

 

Reginaldo Vieira (13-3) vs. Dileno Lopes (19-1)
Dileno Lopes is a big favorite here and for good reason. He is currently riding an 11 fight win streak and presents a dual threat with knockout ability as well as a ground game that can match Vieira when the fight hits the floor. If Lopes can defend against the takedown and keep this fight standing up then we could very well see Vieira on the canvas looking up while the referee waves this one off.

The UFC odds on this one have remained pretty well stagnant but if you want the best line available on Lopes among the major offshore sportsbooks then you would turn to Betonline offering Lopes -300.

 

Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva (18-7) vs. Soa Palelei (22-4)
Bigfoot is not the same fighter he was in his heyday and is now fighting for his UFC life in this one. The big man will be locking horns with a tremendously powerful individual in Soa Pelelei whose moniker, “The Hulk”, says all you need to know. Silva is 1-4 in his last five and was starched in the opening round of his last two matches by Andre Arlovski and Frank Mir. Silva no longer has the wherewithal to batter opponents about the Octagon and though Palelei is far from a top-flight heavyweight contender he is certainly capable enough to get Silva on the mat and hammer away until the merciful end of the both the fight and Silva’s career.

In what we believe will be Bigfoot’s swan song signals us to shop on over to Wagerweb where they are offering Soa Palelei at -185. Though The Hulk is no spring chicken at 38-years-old he is 4-1 over his last five and should be 5-1 over his last six when this one is through.

 

Claudia Gadelha (12-1) vs. Jessica Aguilar (19-4)
This is one of the most overlooked battles of the entire fight card. Claudia Gadelha is the number one ranked women’s strawweight in the UFC and her opponent is viewed as one of the premier talents at 115 pounds in the world. Gadhelha’s only blemish on her record comes courtesy of the reigning champ Joanna Jedrzejcyzk via a split decision. She would like to dispense of Aguilar in order to get an immediate rematch for the UFC Strawweight strap.

The former World Series of Fighting champ Jessica Aguilar has not lost since 2010 and relishes the opportunity to compete in the biggest and baddest MMA organization on the planet. Both women possess outstanding ground games and it’s tough to determine just who would have the edge once the ladies get down to gettin’ down. Perhaps the only real advantage that can be had would be the striking ability of Gadelha as Aguilar is not known for her fistic prowess.

Though it appears Claudia will be up to the task and ready to rumble in a rematch with Jedrzejcyzk I cannot help but notice that the UFC odds in this one appear to be artificially inflated in favor of Gadelha. This is a division that is virtually unknown to the betting masses and I believe the oddsmakers are taking advantage of what can only be described as public ignorance. Let the squares lay north of -400. We will take a flier on a talented Jessica Aguilar and grab +355 at Heritage.