Betting Trends To Predict Champions League Winner & Top Goalscorer

Jim Makos

Saturday, February 13, 2016 7:48 PM UTC

Saturday, Feb. 13, 2016 7:48 PM UTC

Before you rush into betting on Barcelona for winning the Champions League or Ronaldo for Top Goalscorer, you might want to notice how soccer odds have been moving since summer.


UEFA Champions League returns this week. We are down to 16 teams competing for the title of the European Champion in the knock-out phase. At the time of writing, Barcelona and Bayern Munich share the top spot in sportsbooks’ tables, followed by Real Madrid. How did they end up as favorites and what are the current trends as presented in the betting charts?


What to look for in Barcelona, Bayern and Real Madrid’s charts
All favorites’ charts show declining soccer odds as it was pretty much expected. Thus, the general advice is to go with the flow and look for a good entry – meaning a bet at favorable odds. And that’s usually during a brief pullback.
Starting off with Barcelona’s chart, their odds dropped from +350 to around +250 since summer. It’s easy to be carried away by their football style and bet at current odds. However, I’d wait for the odds to briefly touch the trendline (red arrow) before I backed them. On the contrary, I’d avoid a bet on the No.1 favorite, should the odds trade above the trendline, which would be a reversal signal.


That kind of signal is apparent in the Bayern Munich’s chart. Their odds, although declining, 
are nowadays trading above the descending trendline (red arrow). The decline is impressive, coming all the way down from +500 to +250, no question about that. Yet, the trendline is no more valid and we now have a strong support at about +220. Wait for odds to drop below +200 if you fancy Bayern’s chances in the cup. Or better yet, stay clear of the Germans at this point.


I told you that all favorites’ odds are dropping. That’s not entirely true. Real Madrid’s odds may have been declining the past couple of months, however they are trading a bit higher than October! In fact, despite Spaniards reaching the Round of 16, their odds have been fluctuating inside the range between +450 and +550. Given the brief spike in December and their current odds not returning to the bottom band, I’d bet against Real to win this year’s Champions League.


Can Manchester City or Atletico Madrid upset the soccer world?
Now, for the two teams I singled out whose chances appear slim but the betting trend might warrant a ‘fun bet’. And by fun bet, I mean betting very small stakes to cash on a miracle.
Manchester City and… 


…Atletico Madrid’s odds are dropping, printing new lows and lower highs.


I think we will be safe backing them, as long as the trendlines are not penetrated. We might want to wait for a pullback in the previously-mentioned fashion, yet in the case of Manchester City, odds are already resting on that line, thus you may want to back them now. 
You could wait for Atletico’s, though. A pullback will likely happen if they underperform in the two legs versus PSV Eindhoven, such as conceding a goal at home. Should that result to a hike no higher than +1900, I would back them and hope they turn the second leg around.


Don’t back Ronaldo for Top Goalscorer – yet
Soccer is played by teams, which consist of actual players. So, another interesting betting market is the Top Goalscorer. Cristiano Ronaldo is considered an almost sure win, trading at -1,000. I am not saying to back at those short odds. I’m suggesting though, keeping an eye on that chart. If odds trade above the trendline, load the charts of other goalscorers and look for a strong decline – usually it would be the second favorite by the time that occurs. Or simply bet against Ronaldo, but not before bettors push the moneyline above even odds.


It’s a bit soon to talk about betting trends and soccer picks in the upcoming first games of the next round. Keep an eye for an update on Monday. For the time being, you should take note that odds of Real Madrid, Gent and PSG are dropping against Roma, Wolfsburg and Chelsea respectively. You might want to risk on those trends and hope they continue till the kick-off time.

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