Betting Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid in 2nd Leg of Super Cup

Nikki Adams

Thursday, August 21, 2014 5:19 PM GMT

We preview the second leg of the Spanish Super Cup match between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid in hopes of finding holes in the soccer odds. With plenty of options on offer at the bookies, which look to be the most profitable for our soccer picks?

The Madrids head into the 2 leg of the Spanish Super Cup level 1-1 with all to play for yet. Who will win the Spanish Super Cup when the sides renew hostilities at the Calderon on Friday? Here’s our preview of the highly anticipated showdown in the Spanish capital.

 

Real Madrid succumb to draw at Bernabéu
A largely muted affair burst into life in the final ten minutes when James Rodriguez gave Real the lead in the 81st minute, pouncing on a loose ball to sneak a shot past Miguel Angel Moya. With that Real Madrid took a step closer to a second trophy on the season, a happenstance that was matched at -275 soccer odds across sportsbooks ahead of the first leg.

Their backs against the wall so, Atletico Madrid rallied and minutes later they were rewarded for their valiant efforts and never-say-die attitude when Raúl Garcia tucked an equaliser past Ika Casillas. Thus, they thrust Cristiano Ronaldo’s boast about Real Madrid’s desire to win all six trophies – the sextuplet, if you will – into immediate doubt. A draw and an away goal to Atletico Madrid is a dream result, an advantage they’ll hope to capitalise on when they host Real Madrid for the return leg at the Calderón on Friday.

 

Super Cup Decider match betting tips
Real Madrid’s chances of winning the Spanish Super Cup were dealt a severe blow when Cristiano Ronaldo limped off the field injured at half time. Ronaldo was instrumental in gaining Real’s first silverware on the season, scoring both goals against Sevilla to lift Real to victory in the UEFA Super Cup. Reports suggest the Portuguese striker is fit to play in Friday’s decider, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll be 100% fit.

In-the-know soccer betting fans know just what a game changer Ronaldo can be when he’s fit and inspired. Portugal’s win over Sweden in the World Cup playoffs was proof positive of his other worldly abilities and they’ll need that kind of an effort from Ronaldo and his pricey cohorts Gareth Bale and James Rodriguez if they are to win the Spanish Super Cup and rescue their brash boast about winning the sextuplet. You can back Real to win outright at +120 or thereabouts across online sportsbooks.

Atletico Madrid have the advantage of an away goal in the first leg to add to home advantage in the reverse leg, both of which could be significant in more ways than one might expect. Last season, Atleti were undefeated at home with a 15-4-0 record, a huge reason why they went on to win the league title. Another reason why they were able to do so was their top defence, which allowed just 26 goals over 38 fixtures, 10 over 19 home fixtures.

Diego Simeone runs a tight ship; emphasis on the group as a whole rather than the individual is at the heart of team ethos. What’s more, the opportunity to deny Real Madrid the sextuplet at this early vantage point would be bittersweet vindication after succumbing to Real Madrid twice last season in pivotal clashes – Copa Del Rey and Champions League.

Bookies install Atleti at the disadvantage, somewhat disingenuously so at +220 to win the second leg outright. The reality is that Simeone’s lads could lift the trophy behind a scoreless draw by virtue of away goals. The draw is matched at +240 while a scoreless draw can be backed at +1000.

Real Madrid fans have to hope Los Blancos score early on in the match to shift the balance back in their favour wholeheartedly. As it stands, Real Madrid’s value to lift the trophy has come down in soccer betting markets, currently priced at -175 futures odds. They are still the favourites, which could be interpreted as an encouraging sign. Then again bookies just might be guilty of putting more value on the reputation of the triplet of game-changing players in Real’s camp and not enough stock in Simeone’s system in turn. Atletico Madrid proved their worth at the Bernabéu and that did see their price tag to lift the trophy tumble down from a high of +200 to +125. Still the way the entire game is cast, it’s definitely leaning towards the more glamorous Real Madrid. Do the bookies have it right? Will Real come through on their fancied odds or should we back an Atleti upset with our soccer picks?

Soccer Betting Verdict: The tie is delicately poised on a 1-1 draw. You couldn’t cut it finer than it is right now as both sides have a good shot at winning this fixture and, in turn, the trophy. To put a finer point on it: it’s closer than the odds would suggest. Atleti are more in it than their +220 odds to win the second leg would suggest as they have home advantage and an away goal courtesy of a draw to lean on.

Of course, Real Madrid could quickly erase that advantage quickly with an early goal, which underscores their generous +120 odds to win outright. It’s worth mentioning an interesting trend that goes against Real Madrid: they’ve lost the last five away legs in Super Cup action. Real fans will hope that trend doesn’t rear its ugly head here. Instead they’ll hope for a convincing performance at the Calderon, not unlike last season’s Copa del Rey, which Real won 5-0 on aggregate.

Soccer Free Picks: While there is value in both camps to win, we’re going with Real Madrid to lift the trophy when all is said and done. Real to win outright at +120 and lift the trophy at -175.