Betting On Both Sides In Thurman-Garcia?

Thurman vs Garcia

Jason Lake

Friday, March 3, 2017 8:15 PM UTC

Friday, Mar. 3, 2017 8:15 PM UTC

Two undefeated champions will walk into the ring Saturday night. But the boxing odds say Keith “One Time” Thurman is very likely to beat Danny “Swift” Garcia in Brooklyn.

And here we are right back where we started. The first lines on Saturday’s welterweight title unification fight between WBA champion Keith Thurman and WBC champ Danny Garcia went up over a month ago, with Thurman favored at –230. That’s the same price you’ll find on the boxing odds board as we go to press. Seems like the market is split on this one.

But not really. Look at the “Lines History” tab for this matchup, and you’ll see the early (and presumably sharp) action was on Thurman. Then Garcia began picking up steam. You can even find him as low as +160 at Bodog, although +200 is the most common price on the board. Say, there wouldn’t happen to be any arbitrage available on this fight, would there?

My Scalp is Tingling

Yes, yes there is – at least as I write this. If you were so inclined, you could bet Garcia +205 at ABC Islands, alongside Thurman –200 at Bovada, and presto, free money. Just use the handy-dandy SBR arbitrage calculator to figure out how much to bet. Thanks to the magic of television, we already have the numbers fresh out of the oven: If you bet one unit on Garcia and 2.03 units on Thurman, you’ll lock in a profit of 0.55 percent.

Okay, maybe that’s not enough free money for you. If you’d rather just make a standard boxing pick for Saturday, we’re happy to recommend Thurman (27-0, 22 KO) at the best price on the board. He’s the No. 2-ranked welterweight in the world at Ring Magazine, with more power and a higher knockout rate than the No. 7-ranked Garcia (33-0, 19 KO).

We'll see the next superstar in the division after we unify these titles. We're going to take first step toward that Saturday night. 1???

— Keith Thurman Jr. (@keithfthurmanjr) March 2, 2017

But did we mention: free money? This is one of those rare big-time fights where two highly-qualified boxers are going to go after each other. There isn’t a lot of consensus in the sharp community over who will win this bout; our slight lean on Thurman is based on the bargain price available at Bovada, and to a lesser extent because of that potent right hand. Bet accordingly, and may the squared circle be with you.

Free Boxing Pick: Thurman –200
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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