It's mini Arsenal versus Arsenal this weekend in the Premier League (or that's how we used to see Swansea). Our tipster has been checking the betting ahead of this passing masterclass and has some free picks based around the Gunner's odds against price.
The general opinion of these two sides is that Swansea is doing well and Arsenal is in the middle of quite a crisis. But when it comes down to Soccer Odds for this matchup, you should look at the Premier League form first before making any move, because in the end that’s what we are concerned about in this betting preview. Arsenal have picked up 11 points from their last six games, Swansea has six out of six, yet the Gunners are 6/5 to win; the draw is 5/2 and the South Welsh team is 13/5.
I’ve been predicting the Swans’ demise for two weeks now, first they beat Leicester, then I took them plus a goal against Liverpool in the League Cup, which looked like a winner until the last five minutes! Then I predicted an Everton victory, but they got a goalless draw at Goodison.
Basically I can’t call them right, so I went looking for support online. Alex Fortune explains why he thinks Swansea will slide down the table:
“Only one side – Aston Villa – averages fewer shots per game than Swansea’s 9.3, and Garry Monk’s side are also at the wrong end of the table when it comes to shots conceded. The Swans have allowed 15 shots on their goal per game so far, with only Hull, Leicester and Burnley conceding more efforts. Monk’s side have also spent a league-high 33 per cent of their matches in their own half, and a league-low 18 per cent in their opposition’s territory.
All in all, the stats paint a picture of a side that is doing a great job of scoring the few chances they are creating, and riding their luck at the back. It’s clearly no bad thing to be so sharp in front of goal, but it’s more than likely to be an unsustainable situation for the Swans. For example, Aston Villa had similar stats when winning three and drawing one of their first four games. Eventually their luck ran out and the Villans have now lost six on the bounce
Arsene Wenger is of course adept at dealing with European midweek games having been in Europe for 17 seasons on the trot. This season hasn't been much different, it's just followed the same inconsistent pattern as the rest of their season.
They came back from the game in Besiktas and drew at Everton the home tie against the Turks, preceded a draw at Leicester, the defeat to Dortmund was followed by a win at Aston Villa by three goals, their win against Galatasaray didn't do much for their chances at Chelsea losing two nil but they probably would've lost at Stamford Bridge with a clear week. Finally their win in Belgium set them up for a nice 2-0 win at Sunderland but the Black Cats contributed to that.
I've been watching Arsenal quite closely over the last few weeks and I haven't been impressed. Starting with the defeat at Chelsea they could only draw 2-2 with Hull City at home and needed a Danny Welbeck stoppage time equaliser. They grabbed two very late goals against Anderlecht two weeks ago having been outplayed for most of the game. Two goals from Sanchez beat Sunderland but they gifted them the victory really. They beat Burnley three goals to nil with more Sanchez goals, but Burnley are really a Championship side enjoying a season in the limelight.
Then came the Anderlecht 3-3 draw. Surely Wenger will demand a reaction after that?
Placing your Soccer Picks on Arsenal is the way to go here, eventhough the price might seem too big against a team like Swansea. The Gunners are flat track bullies and rarely drop points away at bottom half clubs (I know Swansea is in the top half, but I think they’ll end up below 10th). Away from the result Wilfried Bony looks a good price at 2/1, same as Alexis Sanchez at 6/4. You can back them both to score at anytime in the game at 5/1.
Free soccer pick: Arsenal win 6/5