Betting Odds too Good to Ignore: Soccer Pick for Chelsea vs. Southampton EPL Sunday Fixture

Nikki Adams

Friday, March 13, 2015 3:22 PM UTC

Friday, Mar. 13, 2015 3:22 PM UTC

Chelsea turn to Premier League commitments following an untimely exit in Champions League's last 16 to Paris St. Germain. How should you place your soccer picks as they face Southampton?

Chelsea's Blues
Small consolation though it is, Chelsea's untimely Champions League exit may prove beneficial towards their Premier League title bid. They are the runaway favourites at -900 soccer odds in Premier League futures markets, but with their nearest rivals Man City (+700 to win outright) only five points adrift, the title is far from being in the bag. The next few weeks are going to be crucial towards their title bid and without the distraction of European commitments they can focus exclusively on domestic glory.

Certainly, a win over Southampton at the weekend should go a long way towards lifting the gloom that hangs over Stamford Bridge right now and curing their supporters' blues.( You can back Chelsea to win at home to Southampton at -175 soccer odds.) However, it remains to be seen whether Chelsea can bounce back from such a painful disappointment  and in time for what is shaping up to be a massive game against Southampton at Stamford Bridge on Sunday.

To be fair, the Blues have only themselves to blame for the loss to PSG. They were passive aggressive, lacking in adventure and authority on their turf, throughout the match and inevitably paid the price for it. As the old adage goes, don't stare a gift horse in the mouth. So the French side didn't, only too happy to take what was being offered on a silver platter: continued European grandeur.

Still, it was quite baffling. Consider Chelsea kept a clean sheet in 15 of their 20 home league matches since last year's transfer window and outright won 16 of those 20 home league matches, of which 14 were to nil. You can imagine then why it is so shocking Chelsea lost the way they did. After twice holding the advantage over PSG, but for the French to storm back to level the game each time and eventually advance on the away goal rule.


Southampton Hope To Heap More Misery
Southampton are priced as the long shots at +550 on the Premier League soccer betting board, but if there ever was a time to back a top-half-of-the-table underdog at Stamford Bridge, now is the time. When the Blues are still reeling from a huge defeat and feeling raw about it.  

It's not often clubs have a potentially vulnerable Chelsea on the cards. The Saints would do to take a page from PSG and not stare a gift horse in the mouth. The Saints are seventh in the table with a 15-4-9 record and 49 points. They are in pursuit of European qualifying spots in the table, an achievable task with the closest spot a touching distance of a point away. They recently had a good run of away form snapped at West Brom (1-0 loss). Until then, though, they'd won five in a row, including a 1-0 win at the Old Trafford.

To their credit this season, the Saints have enjoyed some eyebrow-raising accounts both home and away, including a 2-1 League Cup win and a 2-0 Premier League win over Arsenal and a 1-1 draw at home to Chelsea in Premier League , amongst several others. Just because the soccer odds makers don't fancy it, doesn't mean the Saints can't get a result at Stamford Bridge.

If not with a win at +550, then a draw at +330 perhaps. Either would be a result the Saints would happily take at Stamford Bridge and one Chelsea's rivals would heartily welcome. It's worth keeping in mind, Burnley (yup, the relegation threatened Burnley) just left Stamford Bridge a couple of weeks ago with a point after holding the Blues to a 1-1 draw. Granted it was a tight spot in the schedule for the Blues, with a trip to Paris immediately before it and a trip to Wembley immediately after it. Still, we're talking about the mighty relegation-threatened Burnley that had no business taking a point off Chelsea, even with a second-tier starting XI fielded.


Soccer Betting Verdict
Conventional wisdom says Chelsea will bounce back. It's what the soccer odds board broadcasts loudly: Chelsea are strongly favoured at -175 to win outright. Yet, it's just too good an opportunity to skip. Call it a cardinal rule of betting: when the soccer odds are simply too good to ignore, they are worth a tickle on your soccer picks. The Saints aren't slovenly at all and don't deserve to be priced at staggering +550 soccer odds to win at Stamford Bridge. Nor, for that matter, should the draw be trading as high as +300 soccer odds in our opinion. So, it's our recommendation to bank on either of those options separately or cover both outcomes on your soccer picks with a double chance bet: Southampton to win or draw at +130.

Soccer Free Picks: Southampton to win +550 or draw at +300
Alternatively, combine these options with a double chance bet at Bet365 for +130.

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