Betting Mayweather vs. Pacquiao? Final Days to Place Boxing Props: Punch Percentages, Predictions, Free Picks & More!

Lee Phelps

Tuesday, April 28, 2015 5:39 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 28, 2015 5:39 PM UTC

Wherever you live, chances are you need to win some money to pay for your Mayweather v Pacquiao pay-per-view! Host of William Hill's boxing podcast Lee Phelps has picked out a few of his favorite betting picks.

When Jimmy Lennon Junior and Michael Buffer announce the two men into the ring at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas the world will be watching what I hope will be the first of a trilogy of fights between Floyd Mayweather Jr and Mann Pacquiao.

Let’s enjoy this one first though and look at some of the bets you can place on the Fight of the Century.


The outcome
Everyone keeps asking me ‘who wins’ and in truth I’ve tried every which way to make an argument for Pacman. I just prefer his style, I’ve enjoyed following his journey more and would love to see him win. However, when I let my mind do the thinking and not my heart, it’s always Mayweather who wins.

He has always found a way to get past his opponents and, although Pacquiao is one of the best he’ll ever have faced, he has been clever enough to wait to face the Philippine fighter.

So, in answer to the question people keep asking me, I’ll go Mayweather on points after a fast start for Manny. Do not be surprised if it’s controversial, and make sure you have a small bet on the draw. Mayweather has had 114-114 cards in the first Maidana fight and the one-sided contest against Saul Alvarez.

Shop the Boxing Odds Market for Mayweather/Pacquaio Props

The props
The specials bets are often where you can find value and I’ve been looking through the lists. One of the most popular is how big the PPV sales will be. The record was set by Mayweather’s fight with Oscar de la Hoya in 2007 when it totalled 2.4 million dollars.

I’ve seen 3.15 million PPV buys quoted as the spread for this fight, which looks very high to me. Mayweather’s last fight, a rematch against Marcos Maidana pulled in 925,000 buys, while Pacquiao’s last fight against Chris Algieri was around the 400,000 mark. Add to that the fact this is billed at $99.99 dollars and the availability of illegal streams, although they are trying to crack down on that, and I can’t see it reaching the three million mark.


Punch percentages
I like the percentage props. First Mayweather to land over 40.5% of his punches at 1.91 (10/11) is my boxing pick here. The first fight against Maidana, who is a fast punching, come forward fighter, saw Mayweather landed 54% of his punches.

Many point to Zab Judah’s southpaw stance causing Floyd some problems, he still landed 47% of his punches then. Only twice has Mayweather dropped below the 40.5% mark in his last 10 fights.

On the Pacquiao side the bookmakers have set the line at 27.5%. This line is 1.83 (5/6) each way and it’s a tight line to be honest, so I’m going to swerve that one and just play the Mayweather line.


Boxing picks
My Boxing Pick for the fight is Mayweather by decision 1.67 (4/6), with a saver on the draw 17.0 (16/1), while my favorite prop is Floyd to land over 40.5% of his punches at 1.91 (10/11).

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