Betting Line Analysis & Top Selections To Wager UFC 199

Thursday, June 2, 2016 12:04 PM GMT

The card has been finalized for Saturday's UFC 199 pay-per-view in Los Angeles. Is there still any betting value with the MMA odds for the Bisping-Rockhold main event?

UFC 199
Were you able to get your arbitrage on for Saturday's Middleweight title fight between Luke Rockhold and Michael Bisping? It might not be too late. Bisping is still available at +685 on our UFC odds board at press time, and Rockhold is priced as low as –595. Plug those numbers into our sexy SBR Scalp Value Calculator, and it says you can make $1.93 by betting 100 clams on Rockhold and $14.88 on Bisping. That's way better than the 76 cents you could have made at last week's odds. If they don't fight to a draw, of course.

But is there a case for putting all those clams on Bisping? The betting public seems to think so. His odds have been getting shorter these past few days, settling in around the +575 mark at most locations after opening near +700. It could happen. We'll take a pass here at the ranch; if you're not taking the arbitrage route, there are other, better options for your UFC picks this week.

 

Dustin Time
We're looking at two fights in particular, and they both involve gentlemen who lost to Conor McGregor. Now that everyone's aware how good of a fighter McGregor is – in his own weight class, at least – those losses don't look so bad in retrospect. Has the marketplace adjusted yet? Probably not.

First up, it's the opening match on the main card between Dustin Poirier and Bobby Green. Poirier (19-4 lifetime, 11-3 UFC) has won all three of his fights since falling to McGregor two years ago at UFC 178. He's also wisely moved up to the Lightweight division since then. Poirier is a –210 favorite versus Green (23-6 lifetime, 4-1 UFC), who is fighting for the first time since his 2014 loss to Edson Barboza at UFC Fight Night 57. Green's recent history of injuries and his long layoff make him a good fade target against the powerful southpaw.

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Free UFC Pick: Poirier -210
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

 

Max Value
The third fight on the main card is back in the Featherweight division, where Max Holloway is due to face Ricardo Lamas as a –300 favorite. Holloway (15-3 lifetime, 11-3 UFC) was one of McGregor's early victims in the Octagon, losing three years ago at Fight Night 26; he's won all seven of his fights since then, earning three performance bonuses along the way.

Lamas (16-4 lifetime, 7-2 UFC) is no slouch, but he's on the decline at age 34, losing by first-round TKO to Chad Mendes at Fight Night 63 and settling for a unanimous decision over Diego Sanchez at Fight Night 78. Holloway is three inches taller and 10 years younger, he lands over twice as many strikes as Lamas (5.49 to 2.47 per minute, according to FightMetric), and his striking and takedown defense are both superior. We'll buy that for a dollar.

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Free UFC Pick: Holloway -300
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker
Record: 5-0 ML, 1-1 Totals (+6.50 units)