#Betting101: Women's Flyweight Feast at Fight Night 121

Jason Lake

Wednesday, November 15, 2017 2:24 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 15, 2017 2:24 PM UTC

The smaller they come, the softer they fall. The Women’s Flyweight division will be on display this Saturday in Australia, and they’re featured in our UFC picks.

Free UFC Pick: Over 2.5 roundsBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

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What the heck is going on in the UFC? First, Joanna Jedrzejczyk (–700) lost her Women’s Strawweight title to Rose Namajunas. Then Andrei Arlovski (+260) ended his five-match losing streak at the expense of Junior Albini. Crazy times. Will the chaos continue this Saturday (Sunday local time) at Fight Night 121, live from Sydney, Australia?

Quite possibly. But first, as promised, I will eat a bug. Our team went to the local Bug Zoo and picked up a box of Crick-ettes; we’re going with Sour Cream & Onion flavor, which I will pair with a lovely Chardonnay. Let’s give you some tasting notes here ... crunchy right off the bat ... getting some of that sourness ... now the “meat” is coming through. It’s all right. The legs don’t chew as well as the rest of the body, unfortunately, but the wine pairing was spot-on. Entomophagy FTW!


Given to Fly

Fittingly enough, we turn our attention to the Women’s Flyweight division. Yes, there is such a thing: Saturday’s co-main event will be the fourth such fight in UFC history, and it features Tasmanian native Bec Rawlings taking on late replacement Jessy Rose-Clark, also from Australia. Rose-Clark steps in for Joanne Calderwood, who withdrew last Tuesday for “undisclosed reasons.”

In theory, we could fade Rose-Clark (7-4, 1 NC lifetime) as a late replacement making her Octagon debut. But Rawlings (7-6 lifetime, 2-3 UFC) hasn’t been all that impressive, and she’s only a –150 favorite on the UFC odds board at press time. So let’s take a trip to the props market and see if we can bet on these two women to go the distance. Flyweight is 125 pounds, in between Strawweight (115 pounds) and Bantamweight (135 pounds); according to FightMatrix, 67 percent of Strawweight fights went to a decision, and 52 percent of Bantamweight fights. We can expect something in between for the Flyweights.

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Rawlings announces Calderwood out, newcomer Jessica-Rose Clark in at UFC-Sydney https://t.co/fwAysZvMzs

— MMAjunkie (@MMAjunkie) November 8, 2017

Here’s what we’ve got: The OVER is pegged at –250 on the total of 2.5 rounds, and the fight is –230 to end in a decision. Each of Rose-Clark’s last seven fights went the distance, including a five-round victory for the Roshambo Bantamweight title. Four of Rawlings’ last six fights went the full three rounds. This figures to be a stand-up fight with Rose-Clark using her mobility and her leg kicks to possibly out-point Rawlings before the favorite can do much damage. We’ll pay the extra 20 cents for the extra 150 seconds and take the OVER for our UFC picks, thank you kindly.

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