#Betting101: Surfing for UFC Fight Night 119 Value

Jason Lake

Wednesday, October 25, 2017 1:20 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2017 1:20 PM UTC

The UFC has to shuffle its cards on a regular basis, and Saturday’s Fight Night 119 show in Brazil is no exception. That gives us plenty of value on the MMA odds board.

Free UFC Pick: Under 1.5 roundsBest Line Offered: Pinnacle

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Are you ready for Georges St-Pierre to make his return to the Octagon? While everyone’s waiting for the former welterweight champion to fight Michael Bisping on Nov. 4, the UFC has other events to show us. If you didn’t see Fight Night 118 last Saturday, you missed out on some great betting value. Don’t make the same mistake for Fight Night 119, live from Sao Paulo this Saturday; there are a dozen fights to choose from on the UFC odds board. At least one of them will be worth betting on.

There are many different approaches we can use to hunt down that value. This card is in Brazil, so we could lean some of the local fighters for our UFC picks, figuring that promoter Dana White is putting them in a position to win. We could try to pick off late replacements – and there are always late replacements – who are coming in to fight superior opponents without enough preparation time. And we could focus on the divisions at the extreme ends of the weight scale, where certain outcomes happen more reliably than in other divisions. Today, we’re going to attempt all three at the same time, just to show all you #Betting101 fans how it’s done.

Colombo: The Complete Series

The fight in question is the very first fight on the card, a heavyweight battle between Denmark’s Christian Colombo (8-2-1 lifetime, 0-1-1 UFC) and the pride of Sao Paulo, Marcelo Golm (5-0 lifetime). This one has it all: a local hero, a replacement fighter and two very large men going toe-to-toe in the Octagon.

Unfortunately for our purposes, Golm (–170) is both the hero and the substitute. Colombo was supposed to fight UFC debutant Carlos Felipe, but Felipe was flagged for PED use on Sept. 19, and Golm was named his replacement the following day. On top of that, Golm has had over a month to prepare for this matchup. We usually prefer to fade someone who’s coming in on very short notice. Enhancement talent, as they say.

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You really think Cristian Colombo (worldwide jobber) is getting his first W in the UFC ? Is Golm that terrible ?

— Trav Clark (@Divine_Prodigy) October 24, 2017

We can still ride that heavyweight angle, though. Fighters in this division don’t go the distance very often; they typically have hands of stone, and not much stamina. Fighting in Sao Paulo (elevation: 2,493 feet) will drain those gas tanks even more quickly. Golm scored first-round knockouts in at least four of his five fights in Brazil – the time of his fifth KO win wasn’t recorded. Alas, Colombo, age 37, used to be a KO machine, but he’s gone the distance in three of his last five fights. We’re still willing to bet a small sum that this fight goes UNDER 1.5 rounds on the UFC props market. Enjoy the show, and may the Octagon be with you.

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