#Betting101: Lewis-Tybura Not Your Typical Heavyweight Tilt

Jason Lake

Tuesday, February 13, 2018 8:57 PM UTC

Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2018 8:57 PM UTC

Derrick Lewis has a history of knocking people out, but Marcin Tybura’s recent history suggests that Sunday’s fight requires a different approach for our UFC picks.

UFC: Fight Night 126Free UFC Pick: Fight goes to decision (+120)Best Line Available: 5Dimes

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Whatever you do, don’t make Tai “Bam Bam” Tuivasa angry. Did you see the way he unloaded on Cyril "Silverback" Asker at UFC 221? It took Tuivasa only 138 seconds to put Asker on his silver back, winning his seventh straight fight via first-round KO/TKO. That’s seven fights out of seven in his MMA career. Naturally, we had “fight does not go distance” in our UFC picks; there wasn’t a price when we went to press, but this prop was available at -550 when the lines closed.

Next up: Fight Night 126 on Sunday (7 p.m. ET, FS1) in Austin, Texas. There are a number of ways we could approach this card, but once again, the props market is slow to open its doors for us. Is this the new normal? Good thing there’s another heavyweight fight in the co-main event, with Derrick Lewis facing Marcin Tybura in what should be an interesting matchup. This fight is only -160 not to go the distance at press time. Let’s see if these are the UFC odds we’re looking for.

The Legendary Black Beast of ARRRGHHH

Lewis (18-5, 1 NC lifetime; 9-3 UFC) has made a name for himself in the Octagon by beating the holy tar out of his opponents. Only one of his 24 pro fights went to the judges’ scorecards, a split-decision win against Roy Nelson in July 2016. Sixteen of his other 17 victories ended in KO/TKO. So did his most recent fight, although it was in defeat at the hands of Mark Hunt. It looked like “The Black Beast” was going to retire after that, but he’s back, and Lewis should still have plenty in the tank after turning 33 last week.

Here’s where our plans start to unravel. Tybura (16-3 lifetime, 3-2 UFC) is the pride of Uniejow, Poland, and a former M-1 heavyweight champion. Of his five fights in the Octagon, three ended in a decision. Tybura joined the Jackson-Wink camp before facing Fabricio Werdum last November; Werdum won by unanimous decision after a whole lot of clinching and jabbing and switching stances. Tybura’s a crafty one.

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Marcin Tybura Training Highlights 2018 HD: https://t.co/1AJbdIv6jC via @YouTube

— Vaidas94 (@Vaidas94) January 31, 2018

And that was five rounds, not three. Lewis was in the main event in his loss to Hunt, which ended in the fourth round, and in December 2016 he beat Shamil Abdurakhimov via fourth-round TKO. That makes it three of his past four fights that Lewis went at least 15 minutes.

Clearly, this fight doesn’t fit our desired heavyweight profile. But there does appear to be at least a smidge of value betting the other side. Make it a small sum, because these are still two very large men about to throw down, and may the Octagon be with you.

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