#Betting101: Going 'Under' at Fight Night 125

Jason Lake

Tuesday, January 30, 2018 9:33 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jan. 30, 2018 9:33 PM UTC

Lyoto Machida and Eryk Anders are in the main event Saturday, but we’re turning our attention to the preliminary card for our UFC picks – because that’s where the betting value is. 

UFC: Fight Night 125Free UFC Pick: Figueiredo-Morales under 2.5 rounds (+135)Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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It’s like pickin’ cherries off a tree. Last week’s women’s strawweight fight between Randa Markos and Juliana Lima went exactly according to plan; the women went the full three rounds, paying out at -245 on the closing lines. And once again, we got a bargain price at -195 on the UFC odds board by shopping early. As they say, 68.04 percent of the time, it works all the time.

Better make that 68.37 percent. That’s how often fighters in the women’s strawweight division have gone the distance, 67 times out of 98 including last week’s bout -- which Markos won handily via unanimous decision. There’s another fight in this division coming up Saturday night in Belém, Brazil: Maia Stevenson and Polyana Viana will open the festivities on UFC Fight Pass. We might take this one to go 15 minutes. Or we might take the second fight, a flyweight bout between Deiveson Figueiredo and Joseph Morales.

Let’s compare and contrast and see which one belongs in our UFC picks.

Tiny Packages of TNT

We’ve done quite well with the flyweights when it comes to going the distance. According to FightMatrix, 92 of 156 bouts in this division went to the judges’ scorecards. That’s 58.97 percent, or about -144 using the SBR betting odds converter. The women’s strawweights are up to -216 after last week’s results. Alas, the UFC props market is very quiet for Saturday’s Fight Night 125 card as we go to press. We only have the over/under on rounds for each fight: Stevenson-Viana is pegged as low as -118 to go "over" 2.5 rounds, and Figueiredo-Morales is -155 to do the same.

So who are these four people, anyway? According to our lovable gang of street urchins (a k a Google), Stevenson is 6-4 lifetime, winning each of her last five bouts by stoppage. Three of her four losses were by KO/TKO or submission. So let’s skip right ahead to the flyweights. Figueiredo is 13-0 lifetime (2-0 UFC) with 11 wins by stoppage. Sweet cuppin’ cakes, this will not do at all.

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Deiveson Figueiredo defeated Ricardo Eduardo do Socorro da Silva w/ an Arm-Triangle early R1 in his last fight before his UFC debut at SMF - Salvaterra Marajo Fight 5 (2016) #UFCBelem pic.twitter.com/BYfI2VX2VL

— Honky Extraordinaire (@Mr_Honky) January 29, 2018

Maybe we can bet the other side. Viana is 9-1 lifetime with all nine victories coming via KO/TKO or submission. Now we’re talking. And Morales is 9-0 lifetime (1-0 UFC) with just two decisions along the way. Let’s take the "under" on the men’s bout at +135 instead of the women’s bout at +105. Figueiredo is the local hero in this fight and well-versed in multiple chokes, while Morales is a technically sound striker out of Sacramento (and Team Alpha Male) with his own array of choke holds.

Keep in mind that both gentlemen had most of their fights at the “indie” level, where stoppages are more likely, so make it a small bet size for Saturday night when they step into the Octagon.

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