#Betting101: Going the Distance on Markos-Lima at UFC on Fox 27

Jason Lake

Tuesday, January 23, 2018 8:41 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jan. 23, 2018 8:41 PM UTC

Randa Markos and Juliana Lima are going to fight Saturday in Charlotte at UFC on Fox 27. Given their size and history, the props market looks like the right place for our UFC picks.

UFC on Fox 27Free UFC Pick: Fight goes to decision (-195)Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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There are no deadbolt locks in sports betting. Last week in Boston, Stipe Miocic defended his UFC Heavyweight title against Francis Ngannou, and for the first time in Ngannou’s career, he went into the third round ... and the fourth ... and the fifth. By the time it was all over, Miocic (+150) was the winner via unanimous decision, and we were left holding the bag here at the ranch.

These things happen. But not very often, so let’s get right back on the horse and turn our attention to Saturday’s UFC on Fox 27 card in Charlotte. Our newest target: the Women’s Strawweight bout between Randa Markos and Juliana Lima. Markos is a –160 favorite on the UFC odds board at press time, but as usual, we’re more interested in the props market, where this fight is pegged at –195 to go to a decision. Off we go.

15 Minutes of Femmes

For those of you who are new to #Betting101, the premise here is that Women’s Strawweight matches naturally tend to last the full three/five rounds. It’s the lightest division in the UFC at a maximum 115 pounds – the other end of the spectrum compared to the Heavyweights at up to 265 pounds. According to FightMatrix, 66 of 97 fights (68.04 percent) in the Women’s Strawweight division have gone to the judges’ scorecards. That’s the equivalent of –213 using the indomitable SBR Betting Odds Converter.

Saturday’s featured women are even more likely to last 15 minutes. Markos (7-5 lifetime, 3-4 UFC) has seen eight of her 12 pro fights end in a decision, including six of seven inside the Octagon. Lima (9-4 lifetime, 3-3 UFC) went the distance in 10 of her 13 fights, and five of her six in the UFC. These are two Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioners with solid defensive bases, especially on Lima’s part, but neither woman has shown much in the way of striking power or submission attempts at this level of competition.

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Randa Markos vs. Juliana Lima, strawweight bout | This Saturday at the UFC on Fox 27 Prelims | 5pm ET, LIVE on FS1 https://t.co/S4ynavrmrt pic.twitter.com/RBRrvHvxv9

— Women's MMA Rankings (@WMMARankings) January 22, 2018

For the Miocic-Ngannou fight, instead of betting the full –1050 for them not to go the distance, we trimmed away much of that chalk and went for “Fight won’t start Round 4” at –493. In this case, we could add chalk instead and take “Fight starts Round 3” at –266. But that doesn’t really give us much: Only one of the combined seven early stoppages for these two women came in the third round. Five happened in the first round, and the other in the second. Let’s go ahead with the full meal deal for our UFC picks, and may the Octagon be with you.

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