#Betting101: Going the Distance at UFC on Fox 28

Jason Lake

Tuesday, February 20, 2018 10:29 PM UTC

Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2018 10:29 PM UTC

After watching the heavyweights throw down, it’s time to focus on the lighter divisions for our next batch of UFC picks – specifically, the women’s strawweight division.

Saturday: UFC on Fox 28Free UFC Pick: Hill-Moroz "over" 2.5 rounds (-325)Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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Missed it by that much. We usually bet on the heavyweights to end their MMA fights before they go to the judges’ scorecards, but we took the other route for last week’s fight between Derrick Lewis and the shifty Marcin Tybura – and nearly got paid at +120 before Lewis earned the knockout at 2:48 of the third and final round. It was worth a shot; as usual, we got a better price than the closing UFC odds, which had “goes to decision” at -105. Gotta stay ahead of the curve.

Speaking of which, the props market for Saturday’s UFC on Fox 28 card in Orlando (8 p.m. ET) hasn’t even opened as we go to press. However, we do have moneylines and totals for eight of the 13 matches on the card, and there are two women’s strawweight fights that might be worth exploiting, so let’s see if either belongs in our UFC picks.

Tiny Bubbles

In case you’re new to #Betting101, here’s the premise: Women’s strawweight fights tend to go the distance. According to FightMatrix, 67 of 99 UFC bouts (67.7 percent) have ended in a decision, which works out to -210 using the omnipotent SBR Betting Odds Converter. Sadly, we’ll have to compare the price for "over" 2.5 rounds instead of going to the props market this week, but at least we have a baseline expectation with which to work.

The two women’s strawweight fights in question are Angela Hill vs. Maryna Moroz on the Fox preliminary card, and Jessica Andrade vs. Tecia Torres in the co-main event. Betting "over" on the first fight will cost you -325; in the second fight, the "over" is pegged at -245.

Andrade is more powerful than your typical 116-pounder, earning five of 17 career victories by KO/TKO and another seven by submission, so let’s pass on that one.

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Maryna Moroz vs. Angela Hill, strawweight bout | This Saturday, UFC on FOX 28 Prelims | 6pm ET, LIVE on FOX https://t.co/nqSWi0CMzt pic.twitter.com/BNsyWOTItw

— Women's MMA Rankings (@WMMARankings) February 19, 2018

Hill and Moroz are more our speed. Each of Hill’s past five fights ended in decision, including all three fights in the UFC. Moroz can slap on a variety of submission holds, but each of her past four UFC fights went the distance; it's much harder to dominate in the Octagon than on the “indie” circuit. We’ll buy that for a dollar.

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