#Betting101: Fading the Replacements at UFC on FOX 26

Jason Lake

Wednesday, December 13, 2017 3:11 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2017 3:11 PM UTC

Tim Elliott has a new opponent for Saturday’s UFC card in Winnipeg -- which should make Elliott worth a look as a medium-sized favorite on the UFC odds board.

Pietro Menga vs Tim Elliott

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Free UFC Pick: Elliott –260
Best Line: WagerWeb

Strange things were happening last week at UFC Fight Night 123. The fight between Alex Perez and Carls John de Tomas was supposed to be in the flyweight division, but they moved it up to bantamweight instead because John de Tomas was having trouble making weight. Very interesting – and of course, Perez won that fight. Then our main man Luke Sanders ate a left hook counter and lost to Andre Soukhamthath in the second round after dominating the first. At least we had Sanders at –217; he was up to –340 by the time they stepped into the octagon.

While Sanders goes home to face the music, we divert our attention to Saturday’s UFC on FOX 26 card in Winnipeg, and there’s another replacement fighter we might like to fade. We return to the flyweight division, where Tim Elliott (14-8-1 lifetime, 3-6 UFC) was supposed to face Justin Scoggins; on December 4, Scoggins pulled out with a back injury and was replaced by Pietro Menga (13-0 lifetime). Elliott was a –260 favorite on the UFC odds board at press time after opening at –235.

TUF Enuff


Elliott’s UFC record might not look so hot, but there’s a catch: This is his second tour of duty with the promotion. The Kansas native and former high-school state wrestling champion went 2-4 in the octagon before stepping back and winning the inaugural Titan FC flyweight title in 2015. Then Elliott won The Ultimate Fighter 24 and earned a title shot against Demetrious Johnson (–1150), and although Elliott lost by unanimous decision, he fought valiantly and even won the first round.

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@TElliott125 is a bad mother fucker! He pushed a car with a woman and her kid today to safety after it brokedown on a main street. A kickass fighter and human being! @joerogan @BrendanSchaub

— Eyrick Gibson (@eyrickgibson) December 12, 2017
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Menga, an Italian-Englishman fighting out of Liverpool, will be making his UFC debut after winning flyweight titles for the UCC and FCC promotions. His last appearance was June 2016 for Bellator, where he knocked out Spencer Hewitt (NL) in the first round. Menga is no tomato can, but this is a big step up in competition, and he wasn’t given a lot of time to prepare. We’ll put Elliott in our UFC picks for a small wager given the situation, and may the Octagon be with you.

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