#Betting101: Fading the Pitbull at Fight Night 120

Jason Lake

Wednesday, November 8, 2017 2:10 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 8, 2017 2:10 PM UTC

Andrei Arlovski has lost five straight matches, and he’s a prime target on the UFC odds board for Saturday’s Heavyweight fight against intriguing Brazilian Junior Albini.

Well, that was a crazy Saturday night, wasn’t it? All three titles on the line at UFC 217 changed hands, none more shockingly than the Women’s Strawweight title, which now goes around the waist of Rose Namajunas. She handed Joanna Jedrzejczyk the first loss of her career, knocking her down twice before securing a first-round TKO and cashing in at +450 on the UFC odds board. More importantly, after all these years, I finally have to eat a bug. I will update you on that process. Could be a cricket, could be a grasshopper.

Fortunately, we didn’t have Jedrzejczyk at –700 in our UFC picks; we had this fight going to a decision at –150. That’s what Strawweights usually do. There are two different Strawweight matchups coming up this Saturday at Fight Night 120, live from “The Ted” in Norfolk, but we’ve got our eye on the Heavyweights instead. Andrei Arlovski is taking on Junior Albini, and after five straight losses, we’re almost certainly going to fade Arlovski against the young Brazilian (–280).

Heavy Fuel
When we previewed Fight Night 119 for #Betting101, we mentioned three specific ways to attack the UFC lines: support local fighters, fade late replacements, and bet on likely outcomes in divisions at either end of the scale – which includes the Heavyweight division. We cashed in at –125 on the closing line when Marcelo Golm choked out Christian Colombo at 2:08 of the first round (UNDER 1.5).

We could try the same thing this Saturday. Heavyweights don’t get paid by the hour; according to FightMatrix, only 132 of 578 fights (22.8 percent) have gone to a decision. The UFC props market has Arlovski-Albini pegged at –460 not to do the same. However, that works out to around 82 percent according to the SBR Odds Converter, and Arlovski went the distance in his last fight against Marcin Tybura back in June. He’s a tough customer.

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Golm & Junior Albini look set to be the next crop of top Brazilian HWs. Something I thought was going extinct.

— Samuel Clark (@sam32165) October 28, 2017

He’s also way past his prime. We need to add a fourth category to our shopping list: Fighters who are getting paid for their name value instead of their ability. Arlovski made money for us back in the day, on multiple occasions, but he’s almost certainly out of gas now after losing five consecutive fights against increasingly worse competition. On Saturday, he’s stepping into the Octagon with Albini (14-2 lifetime, 1-0 UFC), who won Performance of the Night honors after pounding the crap out of Timothy Johnson (–300) in July. One-hit wonder? Perhaps, and I'm not saying I’ll eat a bug if Arlovski loses, but still. A bettor’s gotta do what a bettor’s gotta do. That’s #Betting101.

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