#Betting101: All-In on Jedrzejczyk for UFC 217

Jason Lake

Wednesday, November 1, 2017 1:39 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 1, 2017 1:39 PM UTC

Joanna Jedrzejczyk will almost certainly beat Rose Namajunas in Saturday’s Women’s Strawweight title fight at UFC 217. But does the champion belong in our UFC picks? If so, how?

The stakes were a bit lower the last time we talked MMA here at #Betting101. We targeted the opening match at Fight Night 119 between Marcelo Golm and Christian Colombo, taking UNDER 1.5 rounds (–123) and cashing in when Golm made Colombo tap at 2:08 of the very first round. Now we’ve got a major event coming up this Saturday at Madison Square Garden: UFC 217, with Georges St-Pierre coming out of semi-retirement to challenge Michael Bisping for the Middleweight strap.

We’ve got a different title fight in mind here at the ranch. Joanna Jedrzejczyk will defend her Women’s Strawweight belt against Rose Namajunas, and Jedrzejczyk is the biggest favorite on Saturday’s card, with –500 the lowest price on the UFC odds board at press time. Namajunas (9-3 lifetime, 7-2 UFC) is one of the best female fighters in the sport, but if she beats Jedrzejczyk (14-0 lifetime, 8-0 UFC) for the title, I will eat a bug. A big fat juicy bug.

Polish Power

The question is whether or not to eat that chalk. There are other options for our UFC picks; according to FightMatrix, 59 of 88 matches (67 percent) in the Women’s Strawweight division went the distance, and Saturday’s fight is pegged at –150 (60 percent) to do the same. This could be where the gold is at.

Jedrzejczyk is definitely comfortable going five rounds. Each of her last four title defenses went the full 25 minutes, as the Polish wrecking machine won each fight by unanimous decision – although she needed a big comeback to put away Claudia Gadelha (–110) after dropping the first two rounds. Volume is the key here; Jedrzejczyk set multiple records in her most recent win over Jessica Andrade (+145), including 225 significant strikes and 75 leg kicks.

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Weird fact: In her last fight, Joanna Jedrzejczyk landed the exact same amount of strikes as Cody Garbrandt has in his entire UFC career

— Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter) October 29, 2017

Namajunas has multiple black belts and tends to finish her opponents off with submissions, but it’s her performance in defeat that we’re focusing on here, and Namajunas went three rounds in two of her three losses. Her split-decision loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+147) is probably the best indicator of what’s to come this Saturday; Kowalkiewicz is another high-volume Polish striker, and she paid us off in that matchup back at UFC 201. We could take Jedrzejczyk by decision at –135 (57.45 percent), but we’ll pay that extra bit of chalk instead, just in case we’re going to Bug City.

Free UFC Pick: Fight goes to decision (–150)Best Line Offered: 5Dimes
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