Betfred Sprint Cup Betting Market Analysis

Jim Makos

Friday, September 4, 2015 7:06 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 4, 2015 7:06 PM UTC

Nineteen horses are competing Saturday during the celebrated Betfred Sprint Cupr Race, taking place at Haydock Pakr, Merseyside England. Among the group of horses to be lined up on the track, but hardly two of the anticipated first finals, are Magical Memory and Belardo.  The newcomers, announced recently, are ranked long after the favorites Adaay, Danzeno & Gordon Lord Byron, according to the betting odds published by the gaming operators. Pretty much as expected, the odds on these horses are still.....plummeting!

The odds dive in respect to favorites is a well-known fact on these sports bets.

The huge amount of cahse, which is concenentrated on these betting markets  thanks to the popularity of these horseracing events, leaves no doubt about the gambler's tendencies.  Players are accustomed to entrust their money on the two or three odds-on favorites. As a concequence, the odds are dropping up until the day of the race, unless somehting extrodinary occurs.


This is also the case on the Betfred Sprint Cup
The odds on Adaay (8.0), placed as the first probable winner of the race tubled from approximately 20.0 soon after the bookmakers accepted the first bets.



The Same Trend Occurs as well With Donzenzo, the Second Top-Pick
The decline seems smoother, but a bunch of sharp better took the opportunity early on and placed their bets when the odds hovered around 30.0.  At the time these lines are written the most you can take on Danzeno is 9.0.



Third Seed, Gordon Lord Byron, Has Attracted Less Attention
This is due to only a handful od betting firms having announced their forecasts in July. As it appeared gamblers had a different opinion in early August when several bookmakers began accepting wagers at 15.0.  Nevertheless, in just a few days the odds plunged deeper to about 10.0, where they are resting right now.



A Brief Glimpse on the Outsiders
Meanwhile, last year's winner G Force, is also recording a declining odds trend.  Despite the drop from the initial 17.0 odds, G Force is placed at the seventh place (13.0).



G Force is not Alone
This trend follows many underdog horses, not just G Force, due large in part to bettors' behavior.  For example the odds for Watchabale slumpled from 35-40 to a good 17.0 at William Hill!  Even though Watchable is still one of the big underdogs on Sprint Cup, I wouldn't mind if I'd been quick enought to lay some money at 40.0 given the circumstances. 



The Trend Continues
Even the second longshot of the race, Strath Burn, now offered at 34.0 by bookmakers, enjoyed some popularity among certain players.  They considered the horse a promising stake and bet on odds as hight as 70.0.  Cross your fingers gents.



How to Take Full Advantage of the Available Hard Data When Betting
First of all, the gamblers' tendency to place their bets in favor of the big favorites during big events is once again confirmed. Either this is football, basketball, tennis or the well-known horse racing even of Sprint Cup, the odds for the favorites are falling compared to the initial quotes.  

Mind you, comparable trends are not recorded only in sports.  For instance, take a look at the betting trend regarding Hillary Clinton and the event of her winning the US Presidential Election in 2016. 



How to Bet a Front Runner Early
Based on the above, a simple strategy seems to be betting the front runners right from the beginning, as soon as these bets are available to players.  In particular, if we are allowed to do some trading or the recently introduced cash out option is available, we could exploid the anticipated odds decline.The risk is low becuase losses could be limited if the expected scenario proves wrong.  Apart from the case, of course, something really extrodinary happens which may have a disastrous impact on our strategy,

But how could we take full advantage of the available information NOW?  A coice, which I agree with, would be to folow the current trend, as usually trend-following strategies are among the safest. Still, some may decide to be against the trend and avoid the favorites all together.  In this case, I would prefer to put my money on longshots whose odds are declining instead of another weak option whose odds are looking steady.  Still, that would be a likely choice of high-risk takersm who may anticipate an upcoming drop, mich like what's already happening with favorites.  Remember, though, that there is a balance between shortening and drifitng odds; you may find yourself betting on climbing odds.

Your money, your choices: It's ultimatly up to you now!

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