Best Value on Rounds in Fallback Golovkin-Martirosyan Fight

Andreas Hale

Wednesday, May 2, 2018 12:59 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 2, 2018 12:59 PM UTC

It’s unfortunate that Cinco de Mayo 2018 won’t deliver the highly anticipated rematch between Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin, but all is not totally lost.

Golovkin vs. MartirosyanFree Boxing Pick: Under 8.5 RoundsBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

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It’s unfortunate that Cinco de Mayo 2018 won’t deliver the highly-anticipated rematch between Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin, but all is not totally lost. Golovkin managed to find a last-minute replacement for Alvarez (suspended) in former junior middleweight titleholder Vanes Martirosyan to ensure that we’ll get some boxing on Cinco de Mayo weekend. It’s a fight few expect to be competitive, but that doesn’t mean that there’s no betting value. Because, there actually is just as long as you know what you are looking for.

GGG is entering this fight after coming off of a highly controversial draw against Canelo. It was a fight most thought GGG won and the rematch was set to prove who was the best middleweight on the planet. Unfortunately, Canelo failed a drug test and now we’re forced to wait until at least September to see the rematch. In the interim, the 36-year-old will stay busy against Martirosyan and look to end the longest streak of his career without a knockout at … two. Yes, in 38 career fights, GGG has never gone longer than a fight without a stoppage. Rest assured that he’ll look to lay waste to Martirosyan when the two meet Saturday at the StubHub Center in Carson, Calif.

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As for Martirosyan, he’s a tough competitor who has squared off with the likes of Erislandy Lara, Ishe Smith, Jermell Charlo and Demetrious Andrade. He sports a 36-3-1 record and has never lost a fight by stoppage. As good as he’s been, he has been unable to take it up a notch when facing top-tier competition. Losses to Lara, Charlo and Andrade have kept Martirosyan from being in the upper crust of the junior middleweight division. But now he’s stepping up to middleweight against arguably the biggest knockout artist in the history of the 160-pound division. Oh, and Martirosyan hasn’t fought in nearly two years.

Golovkin is absolutely expected to beat Martirosyan. For one, Martirosyan doesn’t present the type of challenge that could endanger the rematch between Canelo and GGG. Second, Martirosyan isn’t a true middleweight and is taking the fight on short notice. It makes total sense that Golovkin is a -3100 favorite while Martirosyan is a +1550 underdog.

That is simply not bettable.

What is worth your time are the prop bets. Although GGG by stoppage is at -499 and is a bit too high, the 'over/under' is certainly a bit more on the bettable side. Currently, you can find the fight going 'over' 8.5 rounds at around +175 while the fight going 'under' that is -210. It’s actually an interesting line when you think about it considering that Martirosyan has never been stopped and Golovkin is the type of fighter who enjoys beating down fighters until they are a bloody pulp. Over the past 15 fights, GGG has recorded 10 stoppages in under 8.5 rounds. The opponents who managed to get past that are Daniel Jacobs, Canelo Alvarez, David Lemieux (by two seconds), Martin Murray and Curtis Stevens.

There is a distinct possibility that Golovkin will see Martirosyan as no threat and carry him through the over just to give fight fans a fun fight. He’s done it before and it’s not past the realm of possibility that he’ll do it again. However, there’s really no reason for GGG to play with his food. He’s clearly incensed that he’s been put in this position because of Canelo’s failed drug test, and the last thing he wants to do is having fight fans thinking he’s lost a step against a short-notice opponent. Golovkin will most definitely charge forward and eat a few punches to give fans a fun fight (think Mayweather vs. McGregor) before overpowering Martirosyan. It’ll be up to the Armenian to decide how much punishment he’s willing to take.

With the two-year layoff, the jump in weight class and the fact that he’s facing the hardest puncher in the division, there’s no reason to think that Martirosyan will make it to the final bell (+380). Martirosyan has been dropped by lesser opponents (Saul Roman) and is no stranger to touching the canvas. I anticipate a no-nonsense Golovkin to pressure Martirosyan until he breaks him down somewhere around the 6th round. He’ll give fight fans some fireworks but won’t risk going longer than necessary. Take the 'under' here at -210 and cash out.

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