Bet Everton to Win vs. Swansea & Over 2.5 for Soccer Picks

Lee Phelps

Friday, October 31, 2014 3:38 PM GMT

Friday, Oct. 31, 2014 3:38 PM GMT

Our capper is looking at the soccer odds  for Everton vs. Swansea to see where the value lies. Everton have the chance to leapfrog Swansea with a win at Goodison Park. 

Swansea fans must be sick of the sight of Everton. They are a true bogey club for the South Welsh supporters. Everton have never lost to Swansea City in the league a record that spans 18 games and that is the most league games between two teams without any defeat ever by one team against another in the top four tiers of English league football. I don’t see that changing this weekend and I’ll tell you why in the next 500 words or so. The soccer odds see the Merseysiders as favourites at 3/4 the draw 29/10 and the Swans 17/4.

 

Everton
I’ve been impressed with Everton’s forward play this season and their ability to create and convert chances, but obviously the defence has been struggling to cope as well. They have scored the third most goals (19) and conceded the second highest (17). However in the last two games Roberto Martinez’ team has scored six and conceded one, so perhaps the tide is turning or maybe the opposition is just worse. Either way, it’s encouraging and I think we’re getting an attractive price on a home win.

I read an interesting piece by Adam Braun on how and why they are improving: “Everton have been forced to play without wingers for much of this season, the central midfielders have had to take on a role of increased importance.

With 'wingers' like Steven Naismith, Ross Barkley, and Leon Osman, all of whom prefer to pull centrally from their starting wide positions, an increased attacking onus has fallen on full-backs Seamus Coleman and Baines.

Baines and Coleman have been wonderful going forward in the last two league matches, helping Everton to six goals. Of course, this kind of attacking role from defenders leaves the Toffees potentially susceptible to counter-attacks. For this reason, this game-plan may not be a long-term solution, as top teams will likely be able to rip through a defensively fragile side.

But, against Aston Villa and Burnley, the plan has worked. With upcoming league matches against Swansea City, Sunderland, and West Ham United, there seems to be no reason to think it could not continue to be successful.

Still, McCarthy and Barry must do two important things for this configuration to work. First and most obviously, they are the players that need to cover for the full-backs on the counter.”

One by-product of this system, is the necessity to commit fouls to stop counter attacks when the full-backs lose possession or the attack breaks down. This is evidenced by Barry’s three yellow cards so far and McCarthy’s one in limited game time.

 

Swansea
Traditionally in the Premier League the Swans don’t travel well, and the soccer odds demonstrate this. They have won 15, drawn 14 and lost 32 in their 61 games since August 2011 and they have only had one victory this season, which was the first game of the season at Old Trafford. Since then, they have conceded seven goals, but have allowed their opponents an average of 19 attempts on their goal per match.

Interestingly their best defensive performances away from home came in the first half of last season when Michael Laudrup was in charge. They conceded 15 goals in 12 games before his departure. Under Garry Monk they let in 13 in six games and they may concede another two or three at Goodison. 

Find out what other bettors are predicting in the SBR Soccer Betting Forum.

Soccer Picks
I’m taking Everton to win this game because of their ability to score and Swansea’s susceptibility at the back away from home. I’d happily back Wilfied Bony (5/2) and Romalu Lukaku (7/5) to score in the betting, but one at a bigger price is Ross Barkley. He has scored the winner in the last two wins for the Toffees and is priced at 3/1 to score in this game.

One other bet I like is Everton to have the most bookings in the match (prices unavailable at the time of writing) based upon the home team’s tactic of breaking up play with fouls and the away teams’ good disciplinary record. They are third in the fair play table.

As well as the home win, I’m going for over 2.5 goals for this soccer pick because Everton have scored at least two in their last 10 home matches in the Premier League, there have been over 2.5 goals scored in nine of Everton's last 10 home league games and three or more scored in five of Swansea's last six away top flight trips.

Free Soccer Pick: Everton win and over 2.5 goals 17/10 at Bet 365

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