Bet Ajax +500 over AC Milan in Champions League

Nila Amerova

Monday, December 9, 2013 9:14 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 9, 2013 9:14 PM UTC

The stakes couldn’t be any higher when AC Milan and Ajax collide on match day six in Champions League betting. Find out what sportsbooks have on offer in the way of match betting odds and where we feel the value soccer picks are to be had.

AC Milan are hot favourites

Sportsbooks install AC Milan as the hot favourites to win outright at -150 soccer odds over Ajax, who are listed at a staggering +500 to win outright. But is this soccer betting market correct? More specifically, is this disparity in the soccer odds, which will certainly impact the way both sides are treated in soccer betting circles, warranted? When AC Milan have clearly been struggling throughout the competitions and Ajax are recently after a shocking 2-1 upset over Barcelona, a gauntlet throwing win that revived their hope for a spot in the last 16.

AC Milan and Ajax are second and third in Group H respectively, separated by just a point. A spot in the last 16 is up for grabs when they collide at the San Siro, making this a must-win game for either side, although the Rossoneri would squeak through by avoiding defeat with a draw listed at +280 at Bet365.

Three years ago, Ajax made the same trek only to hand AC Milan a 2-0 defeat. Naught came of it then but this time should they accomplish a similar feat they would advance into the last 16 – a heady incentive for the Dutch indeed, underscored by proven success in the fashion Mecca.

What’s more, should the Dutch actually pull off the feat it would be a fitting revenge for the debacle that was their first meeting this season in the competition, which ended on a 1-1 draw courtesy of a dubious penalty awarded to Mario Balotelli.

Ajax took the lead late in the game when Stefano Denswill lifted them to a 1-0 lead in the 90th minute and just as the Dutch all but looked to be on their way to a crucial victory, all of a sudden, a Balotelli-inspired scuffle in the box earned AC Milan a penalty shot in the fourth-minute of stoppage time. With everything on the line, Balotelli calmly tucked it away to draw the match and salvage the point for the Rossoneri to the outrage and disappointment of the players on the field and fans across the stadium and worldwide. 

Though disappointing the draw surely was for Ajax, the fact that they very nearly did beat AC Milan together with the injustice of the occasion has to be a source of motivation ahead of their reverse tilt in Italy. Moreover, the win over Barcelona, which they pulled off while playing 10-men only by the way, couldn’t have come at a better time, increasing their confidence just ahead of this crucial, last-ditch effort against AC Milan.

As well, AC Milan’s inconsistent form this season, which has surprised many avid Serie A betting enthusiasts, has to be a source of optimism. Not only have AC Milan been wholly off colour and off form in Europe (2-2-1), so they have been at home where they are a questionable ninth in the Serie A table following a shabby 4-6-5 mark through 15 rounds. Just four wins on the season is not an endorsement of the Italian’s fancied -150 soccer odds now is it.

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Soccer Betting Verdict:

Sports betting opinion is split down the middle with opinion polls showing equal support of either side on the win. Despite AC Milan’s questionable form, clearly there are those in sports betting circles that are siding with bookies on this matchup, believing the Italians will pull through at -150 soccer odds. By the skin of their teeth they are in second place in this group, so it’s definitely possible they would come through for their loyal followers in less than convincing fashion.

Call it a hunch. Maybe even a misplaced moral compass that persists with the notion that wrongs can be righted, but, for whatever reason, we can’t seem to be able to write off the Dutch here even if sportsbooks do. Ajax have impressed. They have momentum right now as well as the confidence, all of which makes them standout as a value soccer pick in our opinion at +500 to win outright at Bet365.

Of course, beating AC Milan at the San Siro won’t be easy, not by any stretch of the imagination and not when the occasion is so big, the stakes so high. But that pressure goes both ways. And given how out of sorts AC Milan have been when presented with lesser occasions, it’s quite possible that they might be again so out of sorts on such a big occasion. It’s not a bet for the fainthearted but it’s a bet worth considering in our opinion for your soccer picks. You decide.

Soccer Picks: Ajax to win outright at +500 and Ajax to advance into knockout stages at +450

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