Best Betting Value on Undercard of UFC 172

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, March 27, 2014 5:21 PM GMT

Though the main event is for the UFC Light Heavyweight title there are other matches which may provide value in our UFC picks. Let’s take a look at some of them.

The Main Event
If you’re jonesing for a preview on the Jon Jones vs. Glover Teixeira tilt then click here and take a peek.  The champ is currently installed as a -700 favorite in UFC odds so if you’re partial to Jones, the prohibitive line makes him a parlay play only.

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Anthony “Rumble” Johnson (16-4, 11 KO’s, 0 Subs) vs. Phil Davis (12-1, 2 KO’s, 4 Subs)
Here we go again with Phil Davis.  The guy has the pedigree and requisite “stacked and jacked” MMA physique to be a player in the UFC.  The problem is that he is starting to become the Jon Fitch of the light heavyweight division in that he does just enough to avoid getting hurt and incorporates a little “layin and prayin” to try and secure the decision.  Not exactly Dana White’s style.  Just ask Fitch who got a ticket out of town with the latest in a series of lackluster performances.

That being said, Davis keeps on winning even though the vast majority of those who witnessed his unanimous decision victory over the highly skilled Lyoto Machida believed the decision went the wrong way.  But a win over a guy like Machida is still a win and Davis is looking to improve upon his 12-1 record to secure a title shot.  Davis is currently -175 in UFC odds to defeat Anthony Johnson and chances are he will do just that.  However, if we are looking for true value in our UFC Picks then let us turn our attention to the total rounds.

Mr. Wonderful needs to be just that – wonderful - if he is to get fans to sit up and take notice.  Johnson will be looking to smash while Davis will be anticipating those lunging, looping bombs headed in his immediate direction.  If Davis avoids Johnson’s barrage he will take him to the canvas where Johnson has tapped out in three of his four losses.  However, if Johnson shocks the world and tags Davis with the ferocity that he is capable of then this will be over in the blink of an eye.  Either way, this fight doesn’t go the distance.

UFC Picks:  Under 2 ½ rounds at -110 at Bet365.com.

[gameodds]26/261814/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Tim Boetsch (17-6, 7 KO’s, 5 Subs) vs. Luke Rockhold (11-2, 3 KO’s, 6 Subs)
You want value?  I’ll show you value and his name is Tim Boetsch.  If you take a look at the UFC odds in this one you will no doubt notice that Boetsch is a staggering 6-1 underdog in most offshore books currently dealing the line.  I say it’s staggering because this is a beefy middleweight who has the chops to turn the lights out if his fists find their mark. 

Though Luke Rockhold is taller, leaner and prettier to look at (no homo), both of his losses have come via knockout with the latest occurring as a result of Vitor Belfort’s spinning heel kick.  While Tim Boetsch will never be confused with the legend that is Vitor Belfort he certainly packs a wallop and though Rockhold holds a sizeable advantage on the mat, Boetsch understands if he is to win this fight he needs to swing for the fences. 

If you put a gun to my head and asked me to guarantee a winner I would first ask you to put the gun away and then ask why you’re taking this so seriously.  Then I would tell you that Rockhold will more than likely end up the winner but his price should be a more reasonable -250.  However, this article is about value and if you give me +600 on Boetsch in UFC odds then I will take it and like it.

UFC Picks: Boetsch +600 at Bet365.com.

[gameodds]26/261817/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]