UFC odds are being offered on all the matches at UFC 188 but here we lock in on a few of our UFC picks, the cream of the crop, the best of the best and hope to pad our bankroll. Let’s get ready to rumble!
Betting the UFC
As any fan of the UFC will tell you, or more specifically any fan who chooses to back up their opinions with good old fashioned greenbacks, the UFC odds are rife with prohibitive favorites (see Henry Cejudo -1100 over Chico Camus) which make them virtually unbettable. Unless of course you use them in a leg of a parlay or have the stomach to watch a sure-fire, can’t miss lock-line winner rendered unconscious as you find the nearest desk in which to bang your head against the sharpest edge.
Below we will attempt to find value in our UFC picks and try to avoid betting the rent in order to gain a return that will merely allow us to buy dinner. Conversely, blindly betting underdogs is not a ticket to success either. We must evaluate each fight on a case-by-case basis. Here we go!
Eddie Alvarez vs. Gilbert Melendez
This fight would have happened several years ago but Melendez plied his trade in Strikeforce ultimately claiming that organization’s lightweight title while Alvarez was busy decimating the competition in Bellator. But now the two former lightweight kings are under the same roof and the fight that everyone wanted to see is about to happen on Saturday night.
In this one we see two premier talents going toe-to-toe but we will side with the younger and more well-rounded Eddie Alvarez. Eddie Alvarez can put you to sleep with his sledgehammer strikes or his sublime submission skills. Taking nothing away from Melendez but he was so totally outclassed by then lightweight champ Anthony Pettis six months ago, where he was submitted for the first time in his career, that even he acknowledged in his post-fight presser that age is taking hold and the youthful Pettis was simply too fast.
UFC Pick: We have two selections in this fight – a side and a total. Melendez opened at -165 in UFC odds and that line has spiked to -185 at Bovada. We would normally take advantage of that generous line but find 5Dimes offering an even better return at +155 on the dog rather than the +150 at Bodog. Eddie Alvarez +155 at 5Dimes' the play, and watch him win this one by decision which means we will go Over 2 ½ (-210) at Pinnacle
Gabriel Benitez vs. Clay Collard
Clay Collard got a whole lot of street cred in his last fight against featherweight contender Max Holloway. Taking the fight on short notice he succumbed in the third and final round via TKO but gave every ounce he had until the bitter end. As impressive as that was we see an opportunity to get a nice return on underdog Gabriel Benitez who will be fighting in front of his fellow countrymen on Saturday night. He has nine of his seventeen wins coming by tapout against a fighter in Collard who has lost two of his five by submission. Benitez has never been KO’ed and could score a mild upset here with the home crowd urging him on.
UFC Pick: Gabriel Benitez +225 at 5Dimes offers the best line in this one.
Yair Rodriguez vs. Charles Rosa
Although we are not prone to laying the lumber we know there are exceptions to every rule. Charles Rosa has a 10-1 professional record and oodles of experience compared to the lightly tested Yair Rodriguez. Rosa will have a tactical advantage on the ground and should handle Rodriguez quite easily once the fight hits the mat. This is a big step up in class for Rodriguez and despite his home field advantage fighting before his fellow Mexicans, we see Charles Rosa wrapping him up and putting him out.