The boxing odds have Floyd Mayweather priced as high as –10000 for Saturday's “big” fight against Andre Berto. You could eat that chalk, or you could make a different bet.
Well, that was quick. We're already on the doorstep of Saturday's mega-monster PPV (8:00 p.m. ET) featuring Floyd Mayweather in his “last” fight against Andre Berto. The hype has been virtually non-existent for this matchup, especially when compared to Mayweather's last fight against Manny Pacquiao. Good seats are still available at the MGM Grand as we go to press. You can even get a hotel package deal with two tickets thrown in.
Speaking of good deals, the boxing odds may have Mayweather pegged as high as –10000 for Saturday's fight, but as we said last month, the props market is the place to go for value – even if the market doesn't have the same Super Bowl feel that it did for the Mayweather-Pacquiao matchup.
2 Sweet Me
Before we get too much further, a big shout-out to Michael Woods at The Sweet Science, who gave us a ring here at the home office and asked us a few questions about the betting situation for this fight. At press time, a decision is still the most likely outcome at –225, and Mayweather has edged slightly from –191 to –195 to win that decision. This remains our preferred boxing pick for Saturday.
It's almost written in stone. Mayweather has 26 knockout wins out of his previous 48 fights as a pro, but none since he put down Victor Ortiz in 2011. That's six straight wins by decision for Mayweather, none of them particularly close. Go back nearly 10 years, and Mayweather only has two knockouts in his last 13 fights; the other one was against Ricky Hatton in 2007.
Over The Shoulder
Mayweather could knock Berto out, too. But we wouldn't bet on it. He may be a massive underdog in this fight, but Berto has only been knocked out once in his 33 pro fights, and that was two years ago against Jesus Soto Karass, when Berto tore up his shoulder during the second round. He's got a strong chin, and he's not above using some of the same holding tactics that Mayweather uses.
That shoulder injury also makes it even less likely that Berto will knock out Mayweather. It's still Berto's best path to victory; at press time, he's +1533 to win by KO/TKO/DQ, compared to +3700 for a decision. But without the same punching power in his right fist, we could be in for a repeat of the Mayweather-Pacquiao bout, where Pac-Man ended up fighting with a torn rotator cuff in the same shoulder.
If you're still worried about Mayweather potentially knocking out Berto, you can get the champ at –448 to win by KO or unanimous decision at 5Dimes; you might want to double-check with them to see if a TKO counts before making your boxing picks, though. We'll stick with the regular decision, and may the squared circle be with you.
Free Boxing Pick: Mayweather by decision (–195) at 5Dimes