Belmont Stakes Betting Guide: Our 2¢ on American Pharoah's Chances

SBR Staff

Thursday, June 4, 2015 12:47 AM GMT

There are many reasons why Triple Crown contenders are always huge “underlays” at the Belmont Stakes. Here we look at these reasons, as well as the idea of placing a $2 souvenir bet on American Pharoah and we offer our horse racing picks.

Those looking to place big cash on American Pharoah to win the Triple Crown could be in trouble.

 

Why is American Pharoah an Underlay?
American Pharoah is an “underlay,” which means that gamblers are not being adequately compensated for the true risk that they're bearing on their wager. Even if American Pharoah wins, which is possible because of how special this horse is, betting on an underlay fails to compensate you for the risks that are involved, which ultimately results in long-term losses.

 

Understanding the Triple Crown Betting Market Works
The Belmont Stakes help decrease a  favorite's potential value to even more unplayable levels. One of the reasons for this is the praise that Triple Crown contenders get from the media, which helps attract many casual fans and new public money regardless of the betting odds. It can't be denied that seeing a horse string victories together in tough races like the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes is impressive and new and casual bettors often jump on the bandwagon of a potential winner of all three events, which brings up an interesting question: is there value in purchasing $2 win bet souvenir tickets as mementos or future investments?

 

Value of the $2 Tickets
It goes against the tradition of tearing up a losing ticket into a little ball of confetti and tossing it over your shoulder in disgust but purchasing $2 win tickets in American Pharoah's start at the Belmont Stakes to have them go uncashed, either to share in potential history or to turn them into profit later is a smart move because sadly, it can be more lucrative than cashing out a win bet on the day of the race. There is potential to win big with uncashed tickets on American Pharoah.  

Don't miss our Belmont Stakes horse betting guide for maximum profit!

Top Value Picks for This Race
There is always value to be had when there is an underlay like American Pharoah. How to invest a sizable amount of money in sports picks for this race, which now has an eight-horse field? Keep in mind that there hasn't been a Triple Crown winner since 1978 and that recent Triple Crown candidates are 0-11. It's also worth noting that favorites have struggled at the Belmont Stakes as of late. In fact, since 2000, only two have won the race: Point Given (2001) and Afleet Alex (2005).

There's value on putting American Pharoah in the money if you are playing single-race exotic tickets, as 8 of 11 (73%) of the last Triple Crown candidates to start the race since 1978 have come in third or better, and only one finished outside of fourth place to spoil a superfecta. As for horses that offer great value for Saturday, keep an eye on Materiality, Madefromluck and Mubtaahij.