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WTA Finals: Paula Badosa vs. Iga Swiatek Betting Picks

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WTA Finals: Paula Badosa vs. Iga Swiatek Betting Picks
Iga Swiatek has a career record of 145-44. Photo by Photo by Ulises Ruiz / AFP.

Will Paula Badosa complete the hat trick to finish as the undefeated champion of her group? Or can Iga Swiatek score the upset with the pressure off?

We went 1-2 in the last preview, as Barbora Krejcikova lost in three sets after winning the opening set 6-0. The Over bet landed, which covered most of the damage, but it was a shame to see the underdog lose from 6-0 4-2 and a break point up.

Badosa, meanwhile, has looked like a woman on a mission this week, continuing her fine form. However, the market is firmly on her side, pricing Badosa as the favorite against a top-10 player for the first time in her career. She may well rise to the challenge, but it’s tough to back her for a few reasons.

The head-to-head advantage belongs to Badosa, who won the only match between the two while beating Swiatek 6-3 7-6 during the Olympics this year. Badosa was +235 that day, which is almost the reverse of the price for this match.

Here are my picks and predictions for Monday’s WTA Finals matchup between Paula Badosa and Iga Swiatek (odds via DraftKings, and pick confidence is based on a one-to-five star scale).

Paula Badosa vs. Iga Swiatek Match Info

Date/Time:  Monday, November 15 at 3 p.m. ET
TV: Tennis Channel
Location: Guadalajara, Mexico

Paula Badosa vs. Iga Swiatek Odds Analysis

The market opened around +137 for Swiatek and has since drifted slightly before stabilizing around +145. The shift isn't surprising given the results from the two this week, but the prices are so clearly adjusted that I doubt we'll see a large drift toward the underdog.

Paula Badosa vs. Iga Swiatek Betting Picks

Swiatek (+162) ★
Over 20.5 Games (-135) ★

Paula Badosa vs. Iga Swiatek Predictions

Swiatek (+162)

The tournament isn't riding on this match for either of these women, as Badosa is already through and Swiatek is unable to qualify. Badosa is playing for the $1,680,000 prize money for an undefeated champion, but these kinds of situations often favor the player with nothing to lose, as they can swing freely.

Swiatek looked out of touch in her opening-round match, but she'll be frustrated with her loss against Aryna Sabalenka. She came within two points of victory at 30 all 5-4, but Swiatek went on to lose the set 7-5. She hasn’t looked her best in recent weeks, though Swiatek tends to rise on the big stage.

Badosa has been exceptionally good to bet on this year. However, when at peak form, Swiatek is the most likely winner, and she leads on longer-term stats, too. Post-Covid, Swiatek’s overall combined service/return points won sits at 109.4 percent and 105 percent on hard courts. Badosa has logged a combined service/return points won of 105.2 percent and 104.6 percent on hard courts.

As a favorite on hard courts, Badosa has won 64 percent of her last 50 matches for a -3 percent return on investment (ROI). Like Swiatek, she tends to do her best work on clay. Swiatek is also often good to bet on against elite competition, with a 5-5 record over her last 10 against the top 10 for a 38 percent ROI.

She needs to play the match on her terms to really take Badosa out of her comfort zone and apply pressure. This will be an even match if she does that.

Over 20.5 Games

Swiatek's aggressive game makes me think this will be a match with shorter rallies and a lot of power play. Given the round-robin format, I also expect a less clinical match from Badosa even if she does win. Surely her priority needs to be saving energy for later rounds.

The Over hasn't cashed in three of nine when Swiatek is priced at -200 to +100 against a top-20 opponent this year, and it's hit in four of 11 for Badosa. The head-to-head Over was also 6-3 and 7-6, respectively, in similar conditions.

SEE ALSO: All WTA Odds and Lines

Picks made 11/14/2021 at 8:24 p.m. ET