Back Soccer Betting Odds Favorite in Chelsea vs. Aston Villa

Lee Phelps

Wednesday, September 24, 2014 9:35 PM GMT

You can get soccer betting odds of 16/1 for Chelsea to stay unbeaten throughout the Premier League season, which doesn’t seem a bad price. What then is the best betting strategy for their match against Aston Villa?

Regarding the Futures market for Chelsea in 2014-15, barring a really bad off-day, I can only see them losing at Liverpool or Manchester United.

Regarding their match against Aston Villa on Saturday, I forecast no trouble for Chelsea, but they may have to be patient, as they were against Leicester. It is the Foxes who Villa should study after their efforts at Stamford Bridge, which ultimately ended in defeat but featured genuine chances for Nigel Pearson’s men.

 

Counter-attack
Aston Villa have been a counter-attacking team for a few years now and if you pick your matches well, you can make some money out of them on the road. We picked them at plus one goal at Liverpool last weekend. But can they repeat the feat at the Premier League favourites? I read an interesting blog on 7500toHolte by Adam Clark this week detailing the stats under Paul Lambert.

“We have followed the general trend away from out and out wingers towards 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 and the development of Fabian Delph and Ashley Westwood offer hope for the midfield. But it is notable that even Villa's impressive early performances this season have been built upon a defence that is hardly stable - Ron Vlaar without a contract still, the Senderos/Hutton/Cissokho combination still on probation and last chance saloon for Baker and Clark.”

He also looked at the stats when you compare shots on target to possession. He found it was just one shot per 4.57% of possession - and that's from an average possession of 35.7%. He also noted Villa are “rock bottom in the Shots per Game department at 7.8”. He also made the very good point that although the shot conversion rate has been pretty high, it will not be sustainable and the Shots Conceded per Game is pretty much in the middle of the pack, so they can't be certain that defensive displays will make up the difference.

 

If at First You Don’t Succeed
The majority of teams will park their own brand of bus in front of the Chelsea goal at Stamford Bridge this season, it is down to Jose Mourinho’s men to find a way through. He has assembled a squad capable of intricate passing, exceptional wing play, excellent finishers and players capable of scoring directly from a free-kick. Add to that the skill displayed inside the penalty area and a spot kick is always a possibility. They can bring on world class players as substitutes too, so you have to concentrate for over 90 minutes. Villa had 24.6% possession at Anfield and none of Liverpool’s 18 shots went in.

Chelsea’s two home games show a noticeable pattern. They attack far more in the second half, with nearly treble the shots in the second 45 minutes. They had double the shots after the break versus Leicester too.

 

Soccer Picks
All the evidence points towards another low scoring first half and Chelsea getting the job done in the second. The half time draw full time Chelsea win price is shorter now at 13/4, the half time draw is 2/1 and the match to be level at 30 minutes is 4/5. I like all three, but if asked to pick just one soccer pick, I’d go for the 30 minute market.

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