Back Inter Milan at home over Parma

Mike Richardson

Saturday, December 7, 2013 7:17 PM UTC

Saturday, Dec. 7, 2013 7:17 PM UTC

Tough call ahoy in Italy’s top flight when Inter take on Parma. But a tough call just means there’s more money to be won by picking the right soccer odds (aka listening to your Humble Handicapper’s top soccer tips).

There’s a massive guide to who will win this game if you look at the last five head to head meetings between these two sides. But more of that later. First and foremost let’s take a look at the basics.

Inter are 8/11 to win this game with the sportsbooks, a draw is at 11/4 and a Parma win is at 5/1. If you want to look at the longer game, and maybe have a bet that will come up trumps next year you might like to know that Inter are 40/1 to win Italy’s top flight and Parma are 949/1. You’d be daft (or brave) to back either of those odds to come in – but they’re worth mentioning as it gives you a very clear impression as who is the better team.

Enough with winning the league…WHERE’S THE MONEY MIKE?

In case you can’t tell – it’s Inter. The bookies like them winning both halves at 6/4, but the game being drawn on the 45 before Inter take it on the 90 is worth a punt at 10/3 soccer odds.

Inter have just two wins from their last five games, but they also haven’t been defeated in that run of five. Two wins and three draws isn’t bad, but winless in their last two is a frustrating stat.

Parma have a different level of problem with just one win in their last five. They are technically undefeated in their last three but two draws and a victory hot on the heels of two defeats is hardly grounds for hysterical rejoicing.

What’s also a bit more interesting is that Parma have scored in each of their last three games, but only one goal per game isn’t worth shouting about, and in their two games before that they didn’t score anything. More interesting still is that Parma have only conceded one goal per game in their two draws and two defeats (in their last five). Therefore I’m going to give Parma a goal – but I’m not going to give them a goal against Inter next weekend. So bet against both teams scoring at 5/6. If you think that’s rot you can bet on both teams scoring at 8/11.

Here comes the result

The big news and the most significant fact is that in each of the last five times that this fixture has been played the game has always gone in the homes side’s favour. And in four of those occasions the home idea has won to nil.

It’s two for Inter and three to Parma in that run. Simply backing the home win as your soccer pick won’t make you very rich, see above, but picking the right score is going to be tricky. The last two have both been decided by the same score 1-0. A repeat of that score for the home side is at 6/1 and 16/1 for Parma.

Looking at the last five Parma have scored six and Inter have scored seven, but five of those were in one game back in January 2012.

Prediction: Inter win 2-0 available at 17/2 with BetVictor.

comment here