Australian Open: Strong Betting Trends Showing Up In Odds Charts

Jim Makos

Sunday, January 24, 2016 9:44 PM UTC

Sunday, Jan. 24, 2016 9:44 PM UTC

The first week of the 2016 Grand Slam season is history. As the Australian Open is underway, tennis betting trends are already pointing to the winner.

During the eventful first week of the Australian Open there were some shocks, namely Nadal’s exit by Verdasco. Verdasco himself isn’t among the players still competing in Australia, however. The big names are there, such as Djokovic, Murray and Federer, but there can be only one winner. What do handicappers think?

Let’s examine the betting trends as spotted in the odds charts.

The Declines
Three tennis players are witnessing their odds shortening since the start of the Grand Slam – one since the last summer! Djokovic’s odds have shown no weakness during their decline.

Since sportsbooks offered this betting market, cappers are betting their money on the top favorite for months. They didn’t stop, as the Serbian progressed through the tournament, showing strong performance. With no sign of slowing down, it’s easy for any tipster to include Djokovic in their tennis picks!

Wawrinka’s odds also looks very promising. Despite the ascending odds found at William Hill, they are going south since the beginning of the Australian Open. Given they print new lower lows without meeting any kind of resistance, I suppose there’s merit to predict that Wawrinka won’t be exiting the tournament anytime soon.

And now, for a surprise: Milos Raonic. His odds were drifting before the Australian Open set off but very quickly reversed course by the time the tournament commenced. They shortened from 50 (+4900) to 20 (+1900) at the time of writing. If you are looking for the next shock in the Australian Open, my money is on Milos.


The Drifters
By now you must be wondering: given we are talking of tennis players that are still competing in the Australian Open, having beat their opponents, wouldn’t all charts show a decline?

I start with the ever popular, Roger Federer. When the tournament began, his odds were at about 8.00 (+700). Despite him progressing into the later stages of the tournament, the odds ascended a bit and only recently they began declining! Notice though, that they are STILL trading above 8.00! Thus, I believe Roger won’t be making it into the Open’s final game.

Next up, Berdych’s and Nishikori’s. They show pretty much the same price action, that’s why I’m including them together. Their odds climbed way more strongly than Roger’s and while they have declined as of lately, that are far above the January’s support level.

Again, I wouldn’t be betting on them to take down the title, which seems rational. Mind you though, that I already picked a longshot of 20.0 (+1900) odds to shock the tournament (Raonic). So, it’s not that I’m playing it safe here by not tipping big longshots. I’m just discussing the tennis odds behavior that reflects the handicappers’ trends and psychology.

The Uncertain
Finally, It’s the one of the second favorite to win the Australian Open, Andy Murray’s. His odds began the collapse on the tournament’s startingmatch, but have since failed to print a new lower low. People were betting on him at odds of 5.00 (+400) in October, a long time before the tournament took place. Despite him reaching this stage at the tournament, sportsbooks seem not to accept enough bets to warrant a decline lower than that. Murray’s odds are still available at about 6.00 (+500) at popular sportsbooks, such as Bet365.

I’m reluctant to pick Murray for the tournament’s winner; at least for the time being. Should his odds break below the support level, he’ll be my third pick. Also, I cannot predict an exit under these circumstances. It’s a very fragile balance that odds can go either way. So, I’m sitting on my hands on this one until further notice.

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