The final tune-up for the 2022 PGA Championship takes place this week at TPC Craig Ranch. We break down the AT&T Byron Nelson with our expert PGA Tour picks and bet slips.
TPC Craig Ranch plays host to the AT&T Byron Nelson for the second time. The event is the precursor to the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills Country Club. Several big names are in attendance in McKinney, TX, before heading north to Tulsa, OK.
Scottie Scheffler, ranked No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) is this week’s consensus betting favorite while seeking his fifth win of 2022. He’s one of many in the field playing their first solo event since the Masters as they prepare for the second major of the year.
Below, our PGA Tour experts offer up their picks and best bets for the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch. Picks made by Esten McLaren, Jon Metler, and Jordan Anderson.
AT&T Byron Nelson Expert Picks
SEE ALSO: AT&T Byron Nelson Picks and Preview
AT&T Byron Nelson Picks to Win
Gooch (+4500 via PointsBet)
I was high on Talor Gooch early in the week and that belief has only strengthened with his odds going the other way at most of our top-rated sportsbooks. The 34th-ranked golfer in the world will play his first solo event since a T-14 showing at the Masters. Prior to a missed cut at The Players Championship, he tied for seventh at the Arnold Palmer Invitational for his only top-10 finish of the year to date.
Gooch tied for 39th in this event last year despite losing 0.59 strokes per round off the tee. He has been much improved in that area this season, and he’s in the top 25 on Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green and SG: approach. He’s also 13th in birdie or better percentage and seventh in par 3 efficiency: 200-225 yards, all of our key stats for the week.
With the biggest names in this field most likely looking ahead to Southern Hills, Gooch could take advantage at a mid-tier price. - McLaren
Burns (+2000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
My attention was drawn to Sam Burns this week due to his success last year at TPC Craig Ranch. Few of the favorites listed at the top of the odds board have played here before, and none of them have been as successful as Burns, who finished second last year.
Burns also appeals to me this week because it does not appear that he is looking ahead to the PGA Championship. In my opinion, he will go all out to win this week and I am not so sure we can say the same of all the favorites.
In his last three tournaments, Burns has finished second at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and won the Valspar Championship, with a missed cut in his debut at the Masters. Burns is also averaging more total strokes gained per round than Xander Schauffele, Will Zalatoris, and Dustin Johnson, and yet these three golfers have shorter odds to win this week.
With Burns, I like the player and I like the price point, so I'm backing the +2000 via DraftKings. - Metler
Zalatoris (+2100 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
The AT&T Byron Nelson will be played at TPC Craig Ranch this weekend – a 7,468-yard, par-72 course that typically provides the opportunity to make a plethora of birdies.
Approach shots will be at a premium this weekend, especially after last year’s winner K.H. Lee ranked second in the field in SG: approach for the tournament.
This bodes well for Will Zalatoris, who in his last 24 rounds, ranks first in SG: approach at plus-27.5.
Additionally, TPC Craig Ranch offers wide fairways, so longer hitters will have an advantage. This helps Zalatoris, who in his past 24 rounds ranks second in the field with 15.3 SG: off-the-tee.
Zalatoris has long been overdue for his first PGA Tour win, and this is a course with which he is familiar, playing it frequently as a youth. - Anderson
SEE ALSO: AT&T Byron Nelson Prop Picks
AT&T Byron Nelson Longshot Picks
Todd (+18000 via FanDuel)
Brendon Todd hasn’t had much success this season other than a T-8 finish at the Valero Texas Open, and he has slipped to No. 168 in the OWGR. However, he has made three straight cuts after missing the weekend in back-to-back events.
With few trouble areas at TPC Craig Ranch and little resistance to low scores, last year’s tournament boiled down to a putting contest. K.H. Lee claimed his first PGA Tour win by a three-stroke margin at -25, while T-3 finisher Scott Stallings led the field with 2.03 SG: putting per round.
Todd is averaging 0.66 SG: putting per round this season, and he’s sixth on Tour in par 3 efficiency: 200-225 yards. The three-time PGA Tour champ has shown some signs of past form and his current strengths still fit this course and the conditions well. - McLaren
Wolff (+10000 via DraftKings)
Despite getting off to a strong start to the season in October, Matthew Wolff has been disappointing this year. Wolff missed the cut in three of the last six tournaments, and he failed to make past the first round of the WGC - Dell Technologies Match Play, but he showed some promise last week.
At the Wells Fargo Championship, Wolff spent some time near the top of the leaderboard and ended up finishing T-25. In addition, Wolff gained strokes on approach for the first time in his last eight measured tournaments.
Wolff is undoubtedly a much more talented golfer than several of his competitors within this price window. Caesars Sportsbook would agree with this assessment, as Wolff is trading at +7000, considerably lower than the +100000 found at DraftKings. - Metler
TPC Craig Ranch’s forgiving fairways will be a boon for Wolff, who ranks sixth on tour in driving distance – averaging 316.3 yards per drive.
He has been abysmal this season after success early in his career but showed signs of life last week – where he gained strokes on approach and around the green.
While it’s too early to tell if he has turned a corner, Wolff has a solid pedigree and can make birdies in bunches – the recipe for success at this course.
At this number, Wolff is undoubtedly worth a sprinkle. - Anderson
SEE ALSO: PGA Championship Odds and Picks
AT&T Byron Nelson Matchup Picks
Kuchar (+110) vs. Fleetwood (via PointsBet)
While Tommy Fleetwood is certainly the more popular and the higher-ranked golfer at No. 43 in the world, there are more signs pointing me toward the 84th-ranked Matt Kuchar as a plus-money underdog in this matchup.
First, Kuchar has risen from No. 114 to 84 in the OWGR since Jan. 1. He has two top-five finishes and a T-7 through nine events this year. Fleetwood tied for 10th at the RBC Heritage as his best PGA Tour result of the year thus far. Kuchar also played this event last year and tied for 17th, while Fleetwood did not participate.
Kuchar also holds the advantage on the greens with 0.65 SG: putting per round. The two are neck-and-neck in birdie or better percentage and in SG: approach, so I’ll take the value underdog in what should be an evenly-priced matchup. - McLaren
Spieth (+105) vs. Burns (via BetMGM)
The last time we saw Jordan Spieth was nearly a month ago when he won the RBC Heritage. Spieth plays his best golf in Texas and ranks fifth in this field in SG: approach at plus-17.3 across his past 24 rounds.
Burns hasn’t played a solo event since the Masters. Spieth is in better form after his win that saw him gain over 13 strokes tee to green. I’ll gladly take Spieth at plus money. - Anderson
AT&T Byron Nelson Prop Picks
Top South African: Norris (+470 via FanDuel)
Shaun Norris is fourth among his countrymen in this player pool; however, he’s by far and away the top putter in this South African group. Norris is averaging 1.39 SG: putting per round through 11 events and 18 measured rounds this season.
Though he has rarely played on the PGA Tour outside of major championships, he enters the week 65th in the OWGR. He also has four international top-10 finishes this year, including a win at the DP World Tour’s Steyn City Championship in late March.
A much easier venue than any he’s played in the majors should help produce his best PGA Tour finish to date. - McLaren
Top European: Fleetwood (+700 via FanDuel)
This week, Fleetwood offers an interesting price shopping opportunity in the Top European market. FanDuel gives Fleetwood a price of +700, while Alex Noren and Seamus Power are the favorites at +650. The pricing for Fleetwood is quite different on DraftKings.
At DraftKings, Fleetwood is not only the favorite but he is also three dollars lower (+400) than his price at FanDuel. The European field is extremely thin this week, and I believe that DraftKings' pricing for Fleetwood is much more appropriate than FanDuel's. - Metler
First-round leader: Vegas (+5000 odds via BetMGM)
Jhonattan Vegas ranks eighth on tour in first-round scoring at an average score of 68.50. He is a solid course fit while ranking 10th on tour in driving distance at 314.8 yards per drive.
Vegas was brutal off the tee last week, but the wide fairways here will help correct that issue. You can also look to split your unit and play him for a top-five after Round 1, where he is +900. - Anderson
Picks to Fade
It’s tough to fade many of the names near the top of the board in this top-heavy field. However, while the 2021 Masters champion has two wins this season, he has just one top-10 finish through his last six events. He also withdrew from the Valero Texas Open ahead of the Masters and hasn’t played a Tour event since.
Matsuyama’s game should fit the favorable scoring conditions of TPC Craig Ranch, but he finished just T-39 last year and struggled mightily with the short game. His putting has abandoned him of late, and that doesn’t bode well against the rest of the top competition this week. - McLaren
The fact that Schauffele won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with Patrick Cantlay adds little to my viewpoint. If anything, it furthers my perspective on fading Schauffele and his short prices going forward. Schauffele has not won a full-field event since the 2017 Greenbrier Classic.
Schauffele is always near the top of the odds board with a short price, but he never comes through for his backers. I cannot get behind Schauffele at +1800 for the AT&T Byron Nelson.- Metler
Though Schauffele is one of the most consistent golfers on tour, he never wins. Sorry, team events don’t count. Nor a watered-down Olympic field.
You’re better off hoping for a slow start and jumping in at a longer number on him. Otherwise, it’s proven unsuccessful betting Schauffele at short odds. - Anderson
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