We had a few exciting upsets on what will be the last ever “Manic Monday” as Alex Zverev, Andrey Rublev, Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek were all defeated before a rain delay saw Hurkacz and Medvedev delayed to tomorrow in the fourth set. We had seen very few upsets before today so you could say we were due and maybe Hurkacz will add to that list? Probably not, but it would certainly open up the draw if he managed it and we know he has the talent to beat the best given his run to win the Miami Masters earlier this year.
Either way, we turn to the women’s side for Tuesday’s matches. Join me as I analyze day 8 at Wimbledon and offer my best value picks and predictions for Sportsbook Review!
Viktorija Golubic vs Karolina Pliskova (8)
Tuesday, July 06, 2021 – 06:00 AM EDT at the All England Club
Not a day where anything really stands out but I think there’s some value to be had in siding with Viktorija Golubic at +174 (2.74) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) as she takes on eighth seed Karolina Pliskova. The Swiss player has an unconventional style full of variety and while she may be overpowered by Pliskova, she has shown a propensity to disrupt the power orientated, big hitting players in the past, especially on quicker surfaces like grass and indoor hard.
On grass, as an underdog, she has won nine of 19 matches for a 26% ROI including seven of her last 10 and she’s 1-1 against the top 20. Her win came against world number 12 Belinda Bencic a couple of weeks ago in Eastbourne. If we look at the grass and indoor hard (the surface most similar to grass), she has won 29 of her last 50 as underdog for a stunning 46% ROI and again has won seven of her last 10. Against the top 20, she’s 4-3 with her most notable win coming against then world number 4 Garbine Muguruza.
In her opening round at this event, she defeated Kudermetova and in the lead up to this event she narrowly lost 2-6 7-6 7-5 to Kontaveit. It is notable that she’s tended to do well against the big-hitting, power orientated players – as mentioned, she is often able to disrupt their rhythm and force them to play near perfect tennis to come through on the day.
Pliskova is, of course, another one of these big hitting players and while she has been clinical so far this week. The former world number 1 has tended to struggle for consistency against the better players over the past couple of seasons. Against the top 100, she has a poor 19-18 record over the last 12 months for a -18% ROI and she has won just 26 of her last 50 priced at -200 (1.5) to -101 (1.99) for a -10% ROI.
Looking at just indoor hard and grass, her record is better overall but she has won just five of her last 10 as favorite going back to 2019 including losses in both warm up events against Jessican Pegula 7-5 6-2 and Camila Girogi 2-6 6-2 6-2. Both poor results. The downside is that she hasn’t dropped a set this week and has looked very focused, with her 6-2 6-3 win last round over Samsonova being particularly impressive. Pliskova will likely win comfortably if she is able to maintain that form, but she may also start to feel the pressure.
After all, she has never won a slam, and has generally been underwhelming in slams since her phenomenal run to the final of the US Open in 2016, losing four of her next six quarter finals – two of which she was a strong favourite for - and both her semi finals. Her last five losses at Wimbledon has all come as a strong favorite – in 2019 she lost priced at -800 (1.13) – and I wouldn’t be surprised if a crafty opponent like Golubic was able to break her rhythm and really push Pliskova to figure it out on the day.
These two met on indoor hard back in 2016 and Golubic won 3-6 6-4 6-4 at a much bigger price of +300 (4), which is another example of Golubic defeating a big hitting, top 20 player, and with any luck we will get a repeat of that result. The price at the top sportsbooks doesn’t scream value with Pliskova looking strong this week but she hasn’t really been tested yet and Golubic will be a different kind of challenge. Either way, I like Golubic to win.
Free Tennis Pick: Viktorija Golubic to win at +174 (2.74) with Heritage Sports
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.