In my article for day 8, I asked if Hurkacz could add to the list of upsets and he didn’t disappoint, coming back from two sets to one down to defeat Medvedev. Given his run of form in this event, it would be no surprise if he defeated Federer in the quarter finals. The women’s side was more routine with all the favorites winning and we have an intriguing couple of semi finals lined up for Thursday. The highlight for me sees the current world number 1 Ashleigh Barty take on former world number 1 Angelique Kerber.
I would expect a high quality match in that one and while Barty is the rightful favorite Kerber certainly has her chances. However, I think the value lies in the match between eighth seed Karolina Pliskova and second seed Aryna Sabalenka. Join me as I analyze day 11 at Wimbledon and offer my best value picks and predictions for Sportsbook Review!
Aryna Sabalenka (2) vs. Karolina Pliskova (8)
Thursday, July 08, 2021 – 09:45 AM EDT at the All England Club
As I feared may be the case, Pliskova was far too powerful for Golubic on the day and won comfortably, so no luck on the money line bet in that one. I had a sense that the occasion may get to Pliskova but quite the opposite happened - she looked focused and decisive, an attitude and approach which will serve her well in this match.
It’s quite an open end to the women’s side of the event with all four players having good chances to take the title and they will surely all be very highly motivated to make it through to the final.
These two are both tall at 6’ 1” and 6’ 0” respectively, with huge serves and power orientated games that tend to lead to long matches, especially on the grass, which makes it easier to hit through the court.
They have both served well this week with 80% and 93% holds respectively and have a history of playing long matches in similar situations so I like over 21.5 games at -120 (1.83) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Sabalenka is the clear but not huge favorite and she has looked very strong so far in this event, being able to maintain composure and keep down the often high amounts of errors that can creep into her game.
Nonetheless, the weakest element of her game is her defense and she tends to struggle to win easily in similar situations with just eight of her 23 matches priced as favorite against the top 20 finishing under the total games line.
Pliskova has looked untouchable on serve so far this event and if she maintains her 65% first serve percentage she will surely cover this totals games line with ease. I mentioned last time that she may feel the pressure of having never won a grand slam, but she seemed to rise to the occasion. In only two of her 12 quarters, semis and finals in slams has she lost under the total games line - one to then world number 1, Simona Halep, and the other to Serena Williams.
These two have met twice before and both comfortably covered the over line, finishing 7-6 and 7-5 in the third. My sense is that Pliskova will be very up for this match given that their styles complement. She knows that a good serving day could be enough to see her into a second grand slam final.
Like Sabalenka, the strongest element of Pliskova’s game is her offense and, unsurprisingly, as one of the tallest women on tour, her movement and defense are her weakest areas. She has rarely been able to win easily against the elite but neither has she tended to be dominated in similar situations. When priced up between +100 (2) and +200 (3) against the top 10 the match has only finished under the total games line in seven of 21 matches.
As long as nerves don’t become a big factor in this one I can’t see either winning easily, so I’ll take a chance on over 21.5 games at -120 (1.83) with Bovada.
Free Tennis Pick: Over 21.5 games at -120 (1.83) with Bovada
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.